Thursday’s MLB slate is light with only 7 games on the board. However, that didn’t stop our systems and MLB betting experts from finding the best value on the board.
They’ve come prepared with a variety of picks, including a team total prediction, multiple over/under picks and a player prop. So, let’s dive right into today’s MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup] | 3:07 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”Washington Nationals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png”][/teammatchup] | 6:45 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Atlanta Braves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] | 7:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Colorado Rockies” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:40 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”PRO’s Cubs vs Blue Jays Best Bet: Tucker Showing Value”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” awayname=”Chicago Cubs” awayslug=”chicago-cubs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” homename=”Toronto Blue Jays” homeslug=”toronto-blue-jays” date=”Thursday, August 14″ time=”3:07 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
By Action PRO
PRO is projecting Kyle Tucker for 0.35 homers today, which represents an 11.3% edge over the market. Tucker has gone deep 18 times this season, though hasn’t done so since July 19. Is today the day he finally goes deep again? That remains to be seen, though an 11% edge is tough to pass up.
Pick: Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 Home Runs (+450)
[bettingtrends title=”” gameid=”259061″ date=”20250814″][/bettingtrends]
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”Washington Nationals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Atlanta Braves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Colorado Rockies” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Phillies vs Nationals Best Bet: System Suggests Over”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Over 8.5 (-120)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” awayname=”Philadelphia Phillies” awayslug=”philadelphia-phillies” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” homename=”Washington Nationals” homeslug=”washington-nationals” date=”Thursday, August 14″ time=”6:45 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Bet Labs
Late in the MLB season, games played in hitter-friendly or high-variance environments — such as in Colorado, Arizona and Washington — tend to go over the total when the closing line is modest (≤10.5). These markets often underestimate run production during the final stretch of the season due to weather conditions (e.g., dry heat in AZ/CO, humid air in DC) and expanded rosters, which can increase bullpen volatility. Public perception around fatigue may further depress totals, which creates value when betting overs in August to October for these specific home teams, particularly during the regular-season.
Overall, this system is 333-253-26 (57%) and has generated a 9% ROI. Specifically this season, this system is 8-5 (62%) and has produced a 17% ROI.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1474971″ systemname=”Evan Abrams – Late Season Overs, Lower Totals — COL, ARI, WAS Home (YEAR)” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20was%20played%20during%20the%202025%20or%202024%20or%202023%20or%202022%20or%202021%20or%202018%20or%202017%20or%202016%20or%202015%20or%202014%20season%22%2C%22the%20game%20was%20played%20in%20September%20or%20August%20or%20October%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%200%20and%2010.5%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Over%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20home%20team%20is%20Washington%20Nationals%20or%20Arizona%20Diamondbacks%20or%20Colorado%20Rockies%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$5,799″ record=”333-253-26″ winpct=”57%”][/betlabsembed]
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)
[quickslipbasic bookname=”Fanatics” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/573837_FanaticsSportsbook20ALT.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/08/Screenshot-2025-08-14-at-7.03.57%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”Parlay These Picks Instantly!” buttonlink=”https://www.scoresandodds.com/all/parlay?quickslip=1&onelink=/5kut/85op461v?sharedBy=QS_0105&ref=10001″][/quickslipbasic]
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”Washington Nationals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Atlanta Braves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Colorado Rockies” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Sean Paul’s Braves vs Mets Best Bet: Expect Plenty of Runs”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Over 9 (-101)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” awayname=”Atlanta Braves” awayslug=”atlanta-braves” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” homename=”New York Mets” homeslug=”new-york-mets” date=”Thursday, August 14″ time=”7:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Sean Paul
I’m going with the over here. The total went way over in the first two games of the series, and I see this one going the same way.
The Mets overused their bullpen the past two days as the Braves worked Clay Holmes’ and David Peterson’s pitch count. So, if Kodai Senga, who typically lasts around five innings, can’t provide length, the Mets’ shaky bullpen will have to pitch a ton. That’s a huge positive for the over.
Pick: Over 9 (-101)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”Washington Nationals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Atlanta Braves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Colorado Rockies” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Diamondbacks vs Rockies Best Bet: Back the Rockies’ Offense”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Colorado Rockies Team Total Over 4.5 (-140)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” awayslug=”arizona-diamondbacks” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” homename=”Colorado Rockies” homeslug=”colorado-rockies” date=”Thursday, August 14″ time=”8:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”Caesars Sportsbook” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
Colorado continues to be an underpriced offense. The Rockies have been a reliable group for multiple months, particularly at home. We usually have to deal with a Coors Field tax, but the Rockies haven’t been given that boost in the market despite solid recent performance.
Colorado is fourth in OPS and wOBA against left-handed pitching since the start of June. They get a hefty boost from their home venue, and they’re finally taking advantage of it. Only Detroit has a higher OPS at home vs. lefties since the beginning of June. The lineup the Rockies rolled out on Tuesday against lefty Matthew Liberatore had combined for a .196 ISO and .361 wOBA across 580 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitchers this season. Both marks would lead the league for the full season.
Eduardo Rodriguez recently contributed to Colorado’s stats against lefties. He faced this lineup in his most recent start and was rocked for five earned runs over 5 1/3 innings. Rodriguez has allowed 24 earned runs over his past six starts. He’ll be relieved by a bullpen that ranks 29th in xFIP and last in SIERA since the start of July.
Pick: Colorado Rockies Team Total Over 4.5 (-140)
[gameforecast league=”mlb” gameid=”259066″ date=”2025-08-15″][/gameforecast]
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”Washington Nationals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Atlanta Braves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Colorado Rockies” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png”][/teammatchup] |
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