Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and picks for Monday, April 7.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my Monday MLB predictions and picks.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-06-at-11.02.26%E2%80%AFPM.png” buttontext=”Monday MLB Moneyline Parlay” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1448477646&deeplinkId[1]=ML1447814508&deeplinkId[2]=ML1447798121&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Note: A parlay of these picks is not a formal recommendation. These are recommended straight moneyline bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Monday, April 7
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” secondfullname=”Boston Red Sox” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bos.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Rangers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tex.png” secondfullname=”Chicago Cubs” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/chc.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”San Diego Padres” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” secondfullname=”Athletics” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oak.png”][/teammatchup] |
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Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
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Easton Lucas (TOR) vs. Richard Fitts (BOS)
Conditions should be extremely pitcher friendly on Monday evening at Fenway Park — 40 degrees at first pitch, with 5-6 mph winds blowing in from right field, triggering an Action Labs under system for wind and weather:
The above system is 51-32-5 (61.4% win, +18% ROI) in games at Fenway Park since 2005.
I’d model this total closer to 10.5 runs on a normal day in Boston, but after adjusting for the weather, I lowered the projection to 8.34 runs — bet Under 9 to -115.
The Red Sox played a doubleheader on Sunday following a Saturday rainout, but their bullpen isn’t in too bad shape for Monday. I’d only rule out Garrett Whitlock (43 pitches in Game 1) and Cooper Criswell (64 pitches in Game 2) from pitching on consecutive days, and I would still give Boston a slight bullpen advantage.
Still, I prefer Boston’s offense against right-handed pitching — as opposed to lefties — and give Toronto the superior position-player group on both sides of the baseball. It’s worth noting that Toronto projects as an elite defensive club, while the Red Sox still have an above-average unit.
I view the starting pitching matchup as a relative wash, even though I am personally high on Richard Fitts (102 Stuff+, 111 Pitching+, career 3.51 botERA)
Projection systems view Easton Lucas (projected FIP range of 4.45 to 4.81) as a similarly effective pitcher as Fitts (projected FIP range of 4.43 to 4.86); stuff models would like Lucas to throw his cutter (111 Stuff+, 12% usage) and slider (107 Stuff+, 12% usage) more frequently. Still, he should have more of a fly-ball lean, which meshes well with Monday’s fly-ball distance suppressing conditions.
I projected the moneyline as a relative coin flip — with Boston’s position players taking a slight rest ding after playing two games on Sunday — and would have readily grabbed either side at +110 or better.
Update: Bet to +120 or pass after switch to Jose Berrios.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (Bet to +120) | Under 9 (bet to -115)
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Rangers vs. Cubs
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Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs. Justin Steele (CHC)
I bet the Under in each of the past three games at Wrigley Field.
I played Under 6.5 (+110) and 7 (-125) on Friday; you could have gotten better numbers at close (Under 7, -112 or 6.5, +115), but the bet did cash. I then bet Under 7 (-115) on Saturday; the bet lost but closed at 7 (-124). And I bet Sunday’s total at 7.5 (-114); it closed -118 but lost in the first inning.
What did the weather look like in those games?
- Friday: 45 degrees; 8-9 mph winds blowing in
- Saturday: 49 degrees; 8-9 mph winds blowing in
- Sunday: 45 degrees; 6 mph winds blowing in
Monday will be an extra 10 degrees colder (35 degrees at first pitch) than any of those games, with a real feel of around 22 degrees. The park will also see stronger winds (11-14 mph) than at any point over the weekend.
This matchup fits the same “Wind Blowing In” system as the Blue Jays-Red Sox matchup, which is 136-93-17 (59.4% win, 14% ROI) in games at Wrigley Field since 2005.
I’d model this total closer to 8 runs on a typical day in Chicago, but after adjusting for the weather, I lowered the projection to 5.45 runs; bet Under 6 to -110.
Nathan Eovaldi (102 Stuff+, 102 Pitching+, 3.61 botERA) enters off consecutive quality starts, including a shutout, with a 17:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Eovaldi has thrown his curveball (24.2%, 108 Stuff+) at a career-high rate, and his fastball (28.5%, 97 Stuff+) at a career-low rate through two outings. The curveball usage has increased against both righties and lefties, and modifying his pitch mix could lead to a career year in 2025 (3.91 xERA in 2024, 3.98 in 2023).
Justin Steele (projected FIP range of 3.46 to 3.70) projects as a slightly better pitcher than Eovaldi; still, I think Eovaldi is the likelier of the pair to outperform their projections going forward.
More importantly, both pitchers have above-average command.
Playing the Under on a low total, both starters alleviate concerns I’ve had in recent days betting Unders at this park concerning walks. Ben Brown and Kyle Hart combined for seven walks, a hit batsman, and two balks in the first inning alone on Sunday.
I have bet on these two teams more than any other club so far this season, but I prefer the Cubs in Monday’s matchup (projected -144, bet to -135). Given the handedness splits against these starting pitchers, I rate the two offenses comparably — but I give Chicago’s position-player group the advantage both defensively and on the basepaths.
Texas’s bullpen is in a bit better shape, however, following the Cubs’ wild weekend series against the Padres. Steele is adequately stretched out and will make his fourth start of the season, and I’d expect both starting pitchers to pitch deep into a low-scoring contest.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (bet to -133) | Under 6 (bet to -110)
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Padres vs. Athletics
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Michael King (SD) vs. Luis Severino (A’s)
It remains to be seen how much of an offensive downgrade the Athletics will face going from Coors Field — the best run-scoring environment in the sport — to their new confines at Sutter Health Park, which featured final scores of 18-3, 7-4, and 10-2 in the A’s opening series against the Cubs in Sacramento.
As I’ve mentioned previously, Sutter Health Park should be one of the best offensive environments in baseball over the summer, due to significantly warmer temperatures in Sacramento (average highs of 82 in May, 89 in June, 95 in July, 93 in August, 89 in September) than Oakland (69, 72, 72, 73, 75).
Temperatures were near 55 degrees for the games in Sacramento early last week, but will touch 66 degrees for first pitch (with eight mph winds blowing out) on Monday.
I set Monday’s total at 8.75 runs; bet Over 8.5 at even money or better.
Wind will have less of an impact at Sutter Health Park than it does at Steinbrenner Field, for instance, due in part to superior shielding from wind effects.
Still, the stadium has an extremely short porch in left field — Jacob Wilson’s home run was a unicorn (gone only in Sacramento and nowhere else) — and the Athletics are generally built as an “Over” team, with a deep lineup but a questionable pitching staff.
Signature offseason signing Luis Severino (111 Stuff+) will start on Monday.
Severino added a sinker (22% usage) to his arsenal last season, which has helped combat a reduced strikeout rate. Projection systems still view him as a below-average starting pitcher (projected FIP range of 4.30 to 5.04), but I think he can outpitch those expectations (3.88 xERA, 4.12 xFIP in 2024) by pounding the zone with two different fastballs.
Michael King (projected FIP range of 3.57 to 3.80) had a breakout 2024 campaign (3.60 xERA, 3.50 xFIP, 19% K-BB%, 101 Pitching+) while evenly mixing four pitches (24% four-seamer, 28% sinker, 23% slider, 25% changeup). He remains an underrated top-of-the-rotation-caliber talent.
The Padres also have a severe bullpen advantage over the A’s, who have a bottom-three bullpen if you remove closer Mason Miller. But they avoided a usage disaster during their series in Colorado; Mitch Spence ate 4 1/3 innings in relief on Sunday.
I projected the A’s as +110 underdogs as they search for their first home win in Sacramento.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline (bet to +120) | Over 8.5 (bet to +100)
Sean Zerillo’s MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, April 7
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- Athletics (+125, 0.5u) at ESPNBet (bet to +120)
- Athletics/Padres, Over 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to +100)
- Baltimore Orioles (+112, 0.5u) at BallyBet; bet to +110
- Chicago Cubs (-125, Risk 0.5u) at Caesars (flat to -133)
- Cubs/Rangers, Under 6 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -110)
- Detroit Tigers (+138, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to +130)
- Dodgers/Nationals, Under 8 (-110, Risk 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -115)
- Houston Astros (+143, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to +140)
- Red Sox / Blue Jays, Under 9 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+120, 0.25u) at DraftKings (bet to +120 after change to Berrios)