With 16 games on the slate, baseball fans have no shortage of viewing options for Friday, July 11. That also means there’s no shortage of betting options. However, with so many markets open, it can be hard to sift through them all and find the best value.
Lucky for you, we’ve already done the hard part. Our MLB betting experts have found the best betting value on the board and have detailed their MLB picks below. So, continue reading for today’s MLB best bets.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Colorado Rockies” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | 7:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Twins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:10 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png”][/teammatchup] | 9:38 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup] | 9:40 p.m. | |
|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Rockies vs Reds Best Bet: Back Burns vs. Rockies”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Chase Burns Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” awayname=”Colorado Rockies” awayslug=”colorado-rockies” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” homename=”Cincinnati Reds” homeslug=”cincinnati-reds” date=”Friday, July 11″ time=”7:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
It was great to see Chase Burns bounce back on Sunday against Philadelphia after a disastrous outing against Boston. He notched seven strikeouts over 4 2/3 innigs against Philadelphia, bringing his strikeout rate to an elite 30.6%. Burns has dealt with a trio of tough matchups to start his career (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies), but gets a great spot tonight.
The Rockies easily lead the league in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days and Burns will face them away from Coors Field, which has been an even better matchup. The Rockies have posted a massive 32.3% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching on the road over the past 30 days.
Pick: Chase Burns Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Colorado Rockies” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Twins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kyle Murray’s Pirates vs Twins Best Bet: Matchup Favors Ryan”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-137)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png” homename=”Minnesota Twins” homeslug=”minnesota-twins” date=”Friday, July 11″ time=”8:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”Caesars Sportsbook” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
By Kyle Murray
This projects as a great matchup for Joe Ryan.
The Pirates have been very strikeout-heavy over the past 30 days, with six of their nine projected starters striking out over 23% of the time in that timeframe. Ryan also has an increased strikeout rate against righties, and the Pirates have a projected lineup with six righties.
Pick: Joe Ryan Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-137)
[quickslipbasic bookname=”DraftKings” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-11-at-6.36.02%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”Parlay These Picks Instantly!” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1678738015&deeplinkId[1]=ML1679091636&deeplinkId[2]=ML1678538599&deeplinkId[3]=ML1678538609&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Colorado Rockies” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Twins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Diamondbacks vs Angels Best Bet: System Favors Arizona”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Diamondbacks Moneyline (-118)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” awayslug=”arizona-diamondbacks” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” homename=”Los Angeles Angels” homeslug=”los-angeles-angels” date=”Friday, July 11″ time=”9:38 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Bet Labs
The “Road Tilt in the Dead Heat” system targets MLB regular-season games in which two evenly matched teams — based on win percentage — meet in a non-division setting, and one is quietly priced as a modest road favorite. When there’s no clear performance gap, but the market still tilts slightly toward the road team, it suggests underlying confidence from oddsmakers that may not be reflected in public perception. This model seizes those subtle cues and leans into narrow value created by near-identical records and overlooked road strength.
Overall, this system is 285-176 (62%) and has generated a 10% lifetime ROI. This season, the system has cashed 72% of its picks (18-7) and has produced a 28% ROI.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1479163″ systemname=”Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Road Tilt in the Dead Heat” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Visitor%20team%22%2C%22the%20team’s%20win%20percent%20differential%20is%20between%20-3%20and%203%22%2C%22the%20closing%20moneyline%20is%20between%20-136%20and%20-121%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20a%20Non-Division%20game%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$4,772″ record=”285-176-0″ winpct=”62%”][/betlabsembed]
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-118)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Colorado Rockies” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Twins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup] |
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Phillies vs Padres Best Bet: Over/Under System Play”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 8 (-105)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” awayname=”Philadelphia Phillies” awayslug=”philadelphia-phillies” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” homename=”San Diego Padres” homeslug=”san-diego-padres” date=”Friday, July 11″ time=”9:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
By Bet Labs
This system targets evening games where public interest in the over is muted, the home team’s scoring has run slightly hot of late and subtle environmental signals align with lower-scoring outcomes.
If focuses on games that start between 7:00 and 11:59 p.m. ET in which the market over percentage sits below 50, suggesting minimal public pressure on inflated totals. The wind direction — whether blowing in, across the field or neutral — paired with moderate temperatures — between 26 and 74 degrees — introduces a natural resistance to run scoring. When layered together, these filters isolate a soft edge in a game environment where bettors overlook the under due to recency bias and lack of extreme public conviction.
This season, this system has generated a 13% ROI and has cashed 59% of its picks (41-28)
[betlabsembed systemid=”1479151″ systemname=”Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Night time Unders with Wind and Recency Bias” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20home%20team’s%205%20Game%20over%20percentage%20is%20between%2020%25%20and%2067%25%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20previous%20game%20OU%20margin%20is%20between%20-9%20and%20-1.5%22%2C%22the%20wind%20direction%20is%20To%20Left%20or%20In%20or%20Right%20To%20Left%20or%20Left%20to%20Right%20or%20To%20Right%20or%20From%20Right%20or%20From%20Left%20or%20Left%20To%20Right%20or%20None%22%2C%22the%20temperature%20is%20between%2026%20and%2074%20degrees%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20game%20number%20is%20between%202%20and%20160%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2035%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20home%20money%20is%20between%20-240%20and%20135%22%2C%22the%20over%2Funder%20%25%20is%20between%202%25%20and%2050%25%22%2C%22the%20game%20started%20between%2019%3A00%20and%2023%3A59%20ET%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$26,976″ record=”1479-1126-140″ winpct=”57%”][/betlabsembed]
Pick: Under 8 (-105)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Colorado Rockies” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Twins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup] |
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