mlb-best-bets-picks-predictions-props-april-11 Pictured: Pete Alonso

MLB Predictions Friday, Best Bets, Prop Picks Today — April 11

Baseball fans are in for a treat as the Friday, April 11 slate is loaded with 15 games.

With that many games on the docket, there are plenty of betting opportunities and our MLB betting experts have come through in a big way, identifying multiple MLB prop picks worth betting.

Continue reading as our MLB best bets are below.

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MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game Time (ET) Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png”][/teammatchup] 6:10 p.m.
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] 6:40 p.m.
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” secondfullname=”Houston Astros” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png”][/teammatchup] 8:10 p.m.
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”Oakland Athletics” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png”][/teammatchup] 10:05 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Royals vs Guardians Best Bet: Back Bubic in Cleveland”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Kris Bubic Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” awayname=”Kansas City Royals” awayslug=”kansas-city-royals” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” homename=”Cleveland Guardians” homeslug=”cleveland-guardians” date=”Friday, April 11″ time=”6:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

I’m going back to Kris Bubic after he turned in a dominant start against Baltimore in his most recent outing. He racked up eight strikeouts and didn’t allow an earned run for the second consecutive start.

Bubic has adjusted his arm slot and is now throwing from a lower angle. He has also added a slider and tweaked his changeup to add more drop. The results have been a hefty 14.9% swinging strike percentage and a massive 34.5% called-strikes-plus-whiffs rate. To put those marks into context, Logan Gilbert led the league with a 14.9% SwStr% last season and Chris Sale paced all qualified starters with a 32.3% CSW%.

Sure, it’s only two starts, but this is exactly what we saw from Bubic out of the bullpen last season.

Cleveland had the eighth-lowest strikeout rate against lefties last season (20.7%), but its lineup looks different this season. The group the Guardians rolled out on Sunday against Tyler Anderson had a 22.5% strikeout rate against lefties since the start of 2024 and the fifth through ninth hitters all had strikeout rates above 24%.

Lane Thomas was hit on the wrist Tuesday and hasn’t played since. His continued absence would remove a low-strikeout bat from the lineup and force someone like Nolan Jones (36.4% K%) or Daniel Schneemann (34.2% K%) into the mix. This is at worst a mediocre matchup, but it could shake out quite favorably for Bubic.

Pick: Kris Bubic Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105)



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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Pirates vs Reds Best Bet: Can Cruz Go Deep?”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs (+500)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png” homename=”Cincinnati Reds” homeslug=”cincinnati-reds” date=”Friday, April 11″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”Apple TV+” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

I don’t really love the weather in Cincinnati today, but the ballpark and matchup more than make up for it. Oneil Cruz is going up against Brady Singer, who is a good pitcher, but has been hit hard vs. lefties in his career (allowing 1.26 HR/9).

Cincinnati is one of the best ballparks in the league for power and Cruz’s Statcast data shows that he hits the ball at one of the hardest rates in the league.

I have Cruz’s true odds to homer at just over +400. This is a great EV bet.

Pick: Oneil Cruz Over 0.5 Home Runs (+500)



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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Angels vs Astros Best Bet: Will Trout Stay Hot?”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Mike Trout Over 0.5 Home Run (+350)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Angels” awayslug=”los-angeles-angels” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” homename=”Houston Astros” homeslug=”houston-astros” date=”Friday, April 11″ time=”8:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

Mike Trout is off to a great start with homers in 12 games and is in a good spot today.

He’s playing in a dome and Ronel Blanco is a plus matchup for homers as he’s allowed 1.24 HR/9 to righties over his career. He’s also giving up well-above-average hard contact and fly balls.

I have the true odds for Trout to homer at just under +300, which makes this a great EV bet..

Pick: Mike Trout Over 0.5 Home Run (+350)



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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Mets vs Athletics Best Bet: Ideal Conditions to Homer”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs (+325)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” awayname=”New York Mets” awayslug=”new-york-mets” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” homename=”Oakland Athletics” homeslug=”oakland-athletics” date=”Friday, April 11″ time=”10:05 p.m. ET ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

Pete Alonso is in a near perfect spot and the odds are far too high. The ballpark in Sacramento is one of, if not the, best ballpark in the majors for homers and the weather should be nice tonight.

The wind is blowing out at 8 mph, which will likely provide a big bump as this ballpark isn’t set up to negate wind. The temperatures and humidity are good and J.P. Sears is a good matchup. Alonso has the platoon split and Sears has allowed a large 1.55 HR/9 in his career, despite having played in one of the best ballparks in the league for limiting homers.

I have the true odds for Alonso to homer at around +250, making this a great EV bet.

Pick: Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Home Runs (+325)



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