The Wild Card Round continues on Wednesday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
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You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play provides lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I am approaching Wednesday’s MLB slate.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Josh Lowe Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for the Texas Rangers and could be a good candidate to back against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Eovaldi is coming off one of the best seasons of his career, earning an All-Star nod as he went 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. His underlying metrics are also strong as he ranks in the top half of the league in xERA, xBA, Average Exit Velocity, Whiff%, BB% and Barrel%.
Josh Lowe is the first Tampa Bay hitter to target in Game 1, and he did not play in Game 1 due to facing a left-handed pitcher. While his splits do improve when facing right-handed pitching, they are reduced at nearly an equal rate when playing at Tropicana Field this season.
Lowe is a strong hitter, and there is not much to dislike about his game, but the right-handed pitching matchup does not scare me away from fading him against Eovaldi due to his limited hitting numbers at home.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Randy Arozarena Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
In a play with some strong correlation, I’m also fading the batter who hits directly ahead of Lowe in the batting order – Randy Arozarena.
Arozarena has struggled mightily against Eovaldi in his career, going 3-18 with a .278 SLG and .214 wOBA. He typically struggles against right-handed pitching as his splits drop by approximately 19% when doing so since 2021.
Finally, Arozarena has failed to surpass this figure in 12 of his past 21 games. Over that stretch, he owns a fade-worthy .228 BA, .392 SLG and .722 OPS.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nathaniel Lowe Less Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
We are going to fade another member of the Lowe family on Wednesday as right-hander Zach Eflin takes the mound for Tampa Bay.
It has been the best year of Eflin’s career, going 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. His analytics are also tremendous, ranking in the 74th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, Average Exit Velocity, Chase%, K%, BB% and Hard-Hit%.
That brings us to Josh’s brother, Nathaniel Lowe, who is 0-1 in his career against Eflin. Obviously, that is a minuscule sample size, but Lowe has also struggled on the road this year with his splits taking a roughly 7% dip when doing so.
Entering this contest in poor form, Lowe owns a mere .108 BA, .243 SLG and .458 OPS over his past 10 games. He has failed to surpass this figure in seven of those 10 outings.
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