I typically hold off on betting strikeout props until I have seen a pitcher make at least one start. Well, there are nine starters on Tuesday who will be making their second start of the season. Obviously, that’s still a very small sample size, but it’s better than nothing.
This is a bit of a walkthrough for my process in terms of what I’m looking for when it comes to buying, selling or waiting on betting on pitchers. This is what I’m thinking about when setting up my projections, but sometimes I can still find value in other ways. Nothing is ever set in stone when it comes to my process.
Be sure to follow me in the Action App and subscribe to Action Pro for instant notifications on when I log my MLB strikeout props. I love betting K props and have been doing it for decades.
Welcome to my true 2025 intro to strikeout prop season. Here are the nine starters I’ll cover for Tuesday, April 1:
- Chris Sale
- Luis Severino
- Justin Steele
- Jose Berrios
- Sandy Alcantara
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Logan Gilbert
- Logan Webb
- Michael King
Find my takeaways from each pitcher after their first start of the season, and whether I’m buying, holding or selling them.
MLB Player Props: Tuesday Pitcher Picks, Previews, Analysis
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” awayname=”Mets” awayslug=”new-york-mets” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mia_n.png” homename=”Marlins” homeslug=”miami-marlins” date=”Tuesday, Apr 1″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”SNY” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Sandy Alcantara” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Welcome back, Sandy.
After missing all of 2024 following Tommy John surgery, Alcantara made his return last week — and while his velocity was slightly down from his pre-surgery level, he was still bringing it with 97.2 mph sinkers and 98.2 mph four-seamers. Still elite.
His changeup (50% whiff rate) and slider (63%) were pure filth; he racked up 91 pitches in his debut. That’s a green light on workload moving forward—no pitch count concerns here.
The concern? Command. Alcantara was all over the place, missing the zone, falling behind, and not getting hitters to chase like usual. The movement on his sinker and changeup was nasty … maybe a little too nasty. It felt like even he didn’t know where the ball was going — sort of like my current golf game — just hit it, hope for the best, and yell “Fore!!” when necessary.
That’s not ideal timing for a matchup against the Mets, who:
- Swing at the 4th lowest rate in MLB
- Chase at the 5th lowest rate in MLB
Their patience — fueled by Juan Soto-style discipline spreading across the team — could give Alcantara fits if he’s still struggling to find the zone.
He’s a HOLD for now — the stuff is there and the upside is obvious, but until the command tightens up or he draws a more chase-happy lineup, we wait.
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/03/NYM-MIA-MLB-401.jpg” linktext=”Mets vs Marlins Prediction, Pick, Odds Today” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/new-york-mets-vs-miami-marlins-prediction-pick-odds-tuesday-april-1-qs”][/relatedarticle]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/666193_rangers.png” awayname=”Rangers” awayslug=”texas-rangers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cin.png” homename=”Reds” homeslug=”cincinnati-reds” date=”Tuesday, Apr 1″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”FDSOH” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Nathan Eovaldi” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
BUY!
That’s the verdict early in the season on Eovaldi, who came out of the gates buzzing in his debut with nine strikeouts over six innings and some absolutely filthy offspeed stuff. The man was in midseason form before April even knew what hit it.
This isn’t random, either.
Eovaldi has always been an early-season guy — his career K% in March/April is 24.3%, which is significantly higher than his career average (20.6%). He trends up when hitters are still working off the winter rust, and historically this is the time to ride the wave.
He tossed 87 pitches in his debut, so we’re likely to see a bump closer to his usual 93-ish pitch count in Cincy.
Now, let’s talk arsenal — because it was a tale of two pitch types:
- Curveball: 25% usage (up from 13% last year); 67% whiff rate
- Splitter: 17% usage (down from 31% last year); still nasty at 46% whiff rate
Those two pitches were straight-up unfair in his debut.
The fastball? Not so much. He didn’t get a single whiff on his heater (down from an 18% whiff rate last year), and the velo was slightly down (94.6 mph vs. 95.4 last year). Not ideal, but not panic-worthy.
The upside? If the fastball starts generating even average whiffs, his K ceiling only climbs higher.
Eovaldi’s overall approach remains the same: Pound the zone early (career 64% first-pitch strike rate), get ahead, and then get nasty. He lives on the edges and thrives when hitters are passive, and that’s where things get interesting for this matchup.
The Reds have the …
- 5th-lowest first pitch swing rate
- 4th-lowest zone swing rate
In other words, they’re patient to a fault — and that’s exactly what Eovaldi wants. He’ll get ahead, then start teasing with that curveball/splitter mix that just sent hitters spinning last time out.
This could be one of those matchups where the Reds fall right into his trap.
Regardless of whether I end up with an official bet here, this is a spot where I want to keep a close eye on how the market reacts. If we get a number that’s baking in his fastball struggles or underestimating the impact of the Reds’ approach, I’ll be ready.
Eovaldi is a BUY early in the year. Let’s just hope the market hasn’t figured that out already.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/wsh.png” awayname=”Nationals” awayslug=”washington-nationals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” homename=”Blue Jays” homeslug=”toronto-blue-jays” date=”Tuesday, Apr 1″ time=”7:07 p.m. ET” network=”MASN2″ bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Jose Berrios” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
It was a tough opening outing for Berríos — three homers and six earned runs in five innings — but don’t let the box score scare you off just yet.
Underneath the damage, there were some real signs of life.
He posted a 33% whiff rate and struck out five with a 20.8% K%, but based on his pitch mix and the matchups, my expected K% came out to 30.8%. That’s a massive gap, and it makes him a classic early season buy-low candidate in the strikeout prop market.
The issue? He was living way too much over the heart of the plate. His stuff was generating whiffs, but he didn’t locate it well enough to keep hitters off the barrel. With torpedo bats potentially changing the game as we know it, it’s going to be even more imperative to avoid throwing meatballs.
But Berríos is a vet. I’d expect better location this time around, and if he can pair that with anything close to the same whiff rate (north of 25% is the goal), we’re cooking.
The Nationals present a really interesting matchup here:
- 7th-highest chase rate
- 7th-highest whiff rate
- Highest meatball swing rate
If Berríos keeps leaving pitches down Broadway, hitters will swing, and they might make him pay. But if he can clean up the command even a little, this sets up as a strong strikeout spot.
K props: BUY LOW
Real-life performance: Still a bit of a HOLD; we need to see him keep the ball out of the middle before fully buying in.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sf.png” awayname=”Giants” awayslug=”san-francisco-giants” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” homename=”Astros” homeslug=”houston-astros” date=”Tuesday, Apr 1″ time=”8:10 p.m. ET” network=”NBCS-BA+” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Logan Webb” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sf.png” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Webb’s 2025 debut was a little underwhelming.
The usually durable righty went just five innings on 78 pitches against the Reds — it was a shorter leash than usual, but nothing in the underlying data screams “red flag.”
The pitch mix, though, was interesting.
He cut his changeup usage down to just 11% (from 30% last year) and leaned more heavily on the sinker and cutter. That cutter, in particular, was his most effective pitch in the outing, and if he keeps throwing it 15%+ of the time, that could actually help bump his strikeout rate over time.
Still, it’s a small sample; we’ll need a few starts to know if this is a deliberate shift or just a feel thing.
Webb’s whole game is about control and deception:
- Get ahead in counts
- Get hitters to take strikes
- Get hitters to swing at balls
Most pitchers can’t sustain called-strike success over the long haul — it regresses hard — but Webb has proven to be the exception. He led all qualified SPs in called-strike rate last year and continued to excel in his debut.
The weird part? His chase rate was just 5%, which is laughably low and almost certainly a one-game blip, especially since he’s typically up around 31%.
For Webb to have those 6-7 K games, he needs a very specific opponent profile:
- Takes pitches in the zone (lets him pile up called strikes)
- Chases outside the zone (his best chance to generate whiffs)
Enter the Astros:
- 3rd-lowest zone swing rate
- 5th-highest chase rate
That’s exactly the kind of lineup Webb can work with. If the cutter usage stays up and the Astros stick to their usual approach, this sets up as a sneaky-good bounce-back spot.
K props / fantasy angle: HOLD for now, but the matchup is strong, and if he leans on the cutter again, we might see that K% tick up sooner than expected.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/91388_guardians20241.png” awayname=”Guardians” awayslug=”cleveland-guardians” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” homename=”Padres” homeslug=”san-diego-padres” date=”Tuesday, Apr 1″ time=”9:40 p.m. ET” network=”SDPA” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Michael King” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
King’s season debut was rough.
He didn’t make it out of the third inning, going 2 2/3 frames with three earned runs and four walks. He got yanked after 76 pitches.
Like Logan Webb, King thrives on called strikes. He was second to Webb in called-strike rate last season and has built his success around getting ahead in the count and inducing chases out of the zone.
But that only works if you’re actually in the zone.
King threw just 40% of his pitches in the strike zone, walked four, and gave up an 83% contact rate on pitches outside of it. That’s how you blow up your approach before you ever get to settle in.
His pitch mix remained the usual five-pitch blend, and most of them looked fine. His changeup struggled (8% whiff rate), but overall, the stuff wasn’t the issue — it was command.
That’s the tricky part.
Command can return in a flash … or completely derail a second straight start. Nothing from his debut screams BUY or SELL, so for now, King is a HOLD.
That said, the matchup against the Guardians doesn’t do him any favors:
- The Guardians swing at the 10th-highest rate on pitches in the zone
- Cleveland has the highest contact rate on pitches outside the zone
- 2nd-lowest chase rate
The Guardians are patient, they make contact, and they don’t chase. That’s a brutal combo for a guy like King, who needs hitters to take strikes and swing at balls.
To make things worse, King has pretty sharp platoon splits. He’s struck out righties 4.5% more than lefties over his career. The Guardians might send eight left-handed hitters to the plate.
So yeah, this isn’t the bounce-back spot you’re looking for.
King’s a walking SNL George Washington “nobody knows” meme heading into in his second start. Great stuff, horrible command in the opener, which means he could just as easily spiral again or bounce back with eight punchouts.
I typically shy away from pitchers in this spot after one start, and this is no exception.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” awayname=”Tigers” awayslug=”detroit-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sea.png” homename=”Mariners” homeslug=”seattle-mariners” date=”Tuesday, Apr 1″ time=”9:40 p.m. ET” network=”ROOT Sports NW” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Logan Gilbert” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sea.png” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Gilbert picked up right where he left off last season, tossing seven innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts in his season debut.
Yes, it was against the A’s — so, grain of salt — but this guy is quietly (or not so quietly) becoming one of the better arms in the league.
The big development? His splitter usage.
Gilbert threw it 25% of the time (up from just 13% last season), and it was borderline unhittable with a 64% whiff rate. If that usage sticks, it’s a game-changer.
Gilbert’s always had plus stuff, but if he’s able to mix in such a lethal put away pitch at a higher rate, we’re looking at a serious jump in strikeout rate.
As usual, Gilbert’s tendency to get ahead in the count was on full display — he threw a first-pitch strike to 91% of hitters. That’s an absurd number, even for someone who likes to get ahead. It’s a great way to induce early contact and keep the pitch count low, or get ahead in the count, but it might be something to adjust in this matchup against Detroit.
The Tigers have the fifth-highest first-pitch swing rate so far this season. So if Gilbert’s overly predictable early, they may jump on him. But if he plays it smart and mixes up that approach just enough? It could be an 8+ K night against the Tigers.
Because the rest of the matchup against Detroit sets up perfectly for him:
- 3rd-lowest zone contact rate
- 2nd-highest overall whiff rate
That’s a dangerous combo for Gilbert, who’s pounding the zone and has three offspeed pitches that should see a 30%+ whiff rate.
Technically, Gilbert is a BUY — but this is one of those spots where the market may already be fully priced in. He’s not sneaking up on anyone at this point.
Just know this: if the splitter usage holds, he may be even better than his perception right now.
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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/chc.png” awayname=”Cubs” awayslug=”chicago-cubs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” homename=”Athletics” homeslug=”oakland-athletics” date=”Tuesday, Apr 1″ time=”10:05 p.m. ET” network=”NBCS-CA” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Justin Steele” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/chc.png” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
It’s been a rocky start for Steele two starts in.
After posting a 24% K rate in each of his first four MLB seasons, he’s sitting at just 18% through two outings in 2025. And honestly? That might be generous. My expected K% model has him down at 16.7%, which is a red flag.
He’s living off called strikes right now, but that’s not sustainable, especially since both his first-pitch strike rate and whiff rate have dipped noticeably. His two-pitch mix (fastball/slider) is generating fewer whiffs than usual, and there’s no third pitch keeping hitters honest.
The one bright spot? A career-high 36% chase rate. But it hasn’t translated into Ks — and might not be sticky.
Another thing worth noting:
- 36% of the batters he’s faced have been lefties (compared to just 20% last season). Steele has a +7% K rate vs. lefties for his career. So even with the platoon advantage in his favor, he’s still underwhelming. That inflates the concern even more.
Now he gets an Oakland lineup that’s been less K-prone than expected:
- Ranked 4th in K% last year; 19th so far this season
- Swinging at the 4th-highest rate overall
- And the highest first-pitch swing rate in baseball
Not exactly the profile of a team that’s going to help get Steele back on track.
He’s a SELL right now.
And if anything, he’s been lucky to rack up as many Ks as he has through two starts given the way he’s looked.
[subheader text=”Luis Severino” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oak.png” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
There was no ramp-up needed for Severino in his Athletics debut as he fired 99 pitches and racked up six strikeouts over six scoreless innings against the Mariners.
And the underlying data backed it all up.
Severino generated a 20%+ whiff rate on all four of his main pitches, which is not something you see from most pitchers. Most notably, he nearly doubled his sweeper usage to 33%, and it was nasty. That’s a big jump from last year when he used it around 17% of the time, but it also carried a 39% whiff rate, so it was still effective despite the high usage.
Will that pitch hold up with heavier usage? Maybe not. But for now, the early returns on the new mix are phenomenal.
Here’s what really caught my attention:
Severino’s K% actually went up the second time through the order. That’s highly unusual — most pitchers see a sharp drop as hitters get a second look.
Severino usually follows that pattern, too, but maybe this revamped mix is making him tougher to hit the second/third time than usual. If that holds, it could be a huge development.
Obviously, I’m not suggesting that we make any huge takeaways from this after just one start — but it’ll be something I keep tabs on.
Severino was otherwise pretty average in terms of plate- discipline metrics — nothing jumped out — but the big picture here is all about workload and potential stability.
He threw 99 pitches in his first start. The A’s have no reason to baby him — he’s their ace, and they clearly trust him to go deep. That alone gives him a shot at extra Ks late in games, especially if his whiff profile stays steady deeper into outings.
If the new mix really is keeping him from dropping off the second or third time through the lineup, Severino suddenly has sneaky strikeout upside in a way we haven’t seen in a few years.
Severino a moderate BUY right now, especially if the market hasn’t adjusted to the new look.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” awayname=”Braves” awayslug=”atlanta-braves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ladd.png” homename=”Dodgers” homeslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” date=”Tuesday, Apr 1″ time=”10:10 p.m. ET” network=”FDSSO” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Chris Sale” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” trailinglogourl=”” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
It was business as usual for Sale in his season debut — seven strikeouts over five innings — but peel back the layers, and the K column might be a little misleading.
Sale leaned heavily on his signature slider, throwing it 42% of the time, which would be a career high. That’s notable because while the pitch still looked nasty, it only generated a 30% whiff rate, which would be the lowest of his career with that pitch.
Now, it’s one start. We’re not sounding alarms, but if the slider is “only” producing a 30% whiff rate and he’s leaning on it more than ever, there’s potential for some regression in his strikeout numbers. My model had him at 5.9 expected Ks, a -1.2 difference from his actual total so there was some likely over-performance baked into those seven punchouts.
Interestingly, Sale posted a 36% putaway rate with the slider in that start — well above his norm. That suggests he was getting punchouts a little more efficiently than the underlying data would typically support.
Zooming out: Sale is still going to rack up strikeouts — it’s who he is. But the market knows that. He has over a decade of elite K rates on his résumé, and if there’s even a hint of decline in his age-36 season, the early part of the year is where it’ll show. Historically, his April K% is nearly 4% lower than his career average.
And then there’s the matchup.
Yes, the Dodgers are scary. But surprisingly, they’ve had the fourth-highest whiff rate early on, so this could be a decent time to catch them. That said, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman (who’s dealing with an ankle injury) have been brutal for Sale to strike out historically — and they’ll be eating up six of his ~23-24 batters faced.
Verdict: Sale is a moderate SELL right now — not because he’s broken, but because the market might be treating him like peak 2018 Sale. If he’s a little off, especially early in the year, there’s value in fading the inflated K numbers.
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