There is no better way to get over the mid-week hump than by cashing some MLB player prop picks. I’ve got three strikeouts props with a ton of value on them for Wednesday’s slate.
So, with that said, let’s dive into our MLB player prop picks for Wednesday, July 10 — featuring Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta and Griffin Canning.
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MLB Player Prop Picks
In the table below, you’ll find each of our MLB staff’s top player prop picks from today’s slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:50 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” text=”Zach Eflin”][/teammatchup] |
| 7:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” text=”Nick Pivetta”][/teammatchup] |
| 9:38 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” text=”Griffin Canning”][/teammatchup] |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Yankees vs. Rays” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” awayname=”New York Yankees” awayslug=”new-york-yankees” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” homename=”Tampa Bay Rays” homeslug=”tampa-bay-rays” date=”Wednesday, July 10″ time=”6:50 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Zach Eflin” subtext=”Under 5.5 Strikeouts” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
The Tampa Bay Rays are set to hand the ball to Zach Eflin tonight. Eflin has had some sizeable regression this season, entering this matchup with an ERA of 4.19 on the year.
A big reason for his decline is the lack of strikeouts he’s generated. His strikeout rate is down nearly 8% from last year and ranks in the 24th percentile among all qualified pitchers.
That’s terrible news for Eflin, as he’ll be facing the New York Yankees. While the Yankees have been scuffling as a team, their lineup is still very dangerous, and they have excelled at putting the ball in play.
New York comes into this game ranked 20th in strikeout rate against righties, but it’s improved on that over the last 15 games. All signs point to a minimal number of strikeouts for Eflin, which has been the trend for him this year.
Eflin has gone under this number in 11 of his 16 starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -223 that he will stay under again tonight.
Pick: Zach Eflin Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
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[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Athletics vs. Red Sox” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” awayname=”Oakland Athletics” awayslug=”oakland-athletics” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” homename=”Boston Red Sox” homeslug=”boston-red-sox” date=”Wednesday, July 10″ time=”7:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Nick Pivetta” subtext=”Over 6.5 Strikeouts” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Next, we head to Boston, where the breeze can still be felt after all the whiffs Brayan Bello generated last night against the Athletics. Bello dominated Oakland yesterday and racked up 11 strikeouts, but Nick Pivetta has the potential to match that or even top it.
Pivetta comes into this dream matchup due for significant positive regression, as his xERA sits 0.24 lower than his actual ERA. The Athletics are a team that makes pitchers look great, as they rank second in strikeout rate against righties and 23rd in wRC+.
In addition to the matchup, Pivetta is an elite strikeout pitcher. His 28.1% strikeout rate ranks in the 85th percentile. He has tons of strikeout upside in this matchup and is a guy to back on alternate lines as well.
While he has eclipsed this total just 46% of the time this year, he’s recorded at least eight strikeouts each time he has gone over.
Pick: Nick Pivetta Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-135)
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/07/MLBBestBetsWednesdayJuly10.jpg” linktext=”MLB Best Bets Today | Picks, Totals & Predictions (Wednesday, July 10)” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/mlb-best-bets-today-picks-totals-predictions-wednesday-july-10″][/relatedarticle]
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Rangers vs. Angels” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” awayname=”Texas Rangers” awayslug=”texas-rangers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” homename=”Los Angeles Angels” homeslug=”los-angeles-angels” date=”Wednesday, July 10″ time=”9:38 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Griffin Canning” subtext=”Under 4.5 Strikeouts” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/bet365″ trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
We go from a guy with a ton of strikeout upside to one with almost none in Griffin Canning. Things have not gone well for Canning this year, as he comes in with a 4.87 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP.
He’s shown no signs of improvement, and a big indicator of his poor showings has been a steep decline in his strikeout rate. Canning’s strikeout rate is down over 10% from last season.
He’ll put all of this up against the Texas Rangers, whose bats have finally started to come around. The Rangers rank fourth in wRC+ and ninth in OBP against righties over their last 15 games.
Add that to the fifth-lowest team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and you have a recipe for another Canning under tonight.
Pick: Griffin Canning Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
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