For the Monday MLB slate on April 7, I’m targeting two key markets in strikeouts and outs recorded. Both picks fade starting pitchers in tough spots: Justin Steele and Michael Lorenzen.
Let’s break down my top MLB player prop bets for Monday, April 7:
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MLB Prop Picks — Monday, April 7
- Justin Steele Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115, bet365)
- Michael Lorenzen Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+110, bet365)
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Rangers vs Cubs Player Props: Fade Steele’s Strikeouts
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For our first player prop, we head to the Windy City, where Justin Steele will take the mound against the Texas Rangers. Steele has had a rough start to the season, entering this outing with a 6.89 ERA through three starts.
In his last appearance, he struggled against the Athletics, but tonight, he faces a significant step up in competition with the Rangers. Steele has not been missing bats, with his whiff rate sitting in the 13th percentile, and as a result, his strikeout rate is in the 36th percentile.
So far, he’s shown no signs of positive regression, and the Rangers have been hitting the ball well against lefties to start the season. Steele is a strong fade candidate tonight, and his current plus-money odds on the under make this a solid addition to your MLB betting card.
Twins vs. Royals Player Props: Lorenzen Prop to Watch
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For our next player prop, we focus on one of the biggest regression candidates taking the mound tonight. Michael Lorenzen was surprisingly effective for the Kansas City Royals at the back end of their rotation, but a closer look suggests he was also quite fortunate.
Lorenzen finished the 2024 season with a 3.40 ERA, but his 5.04 FIP tells a different story. That FIP reflects the amount of hard contact he allowed last season, which became evident in his first start of this season.
While the Twins are not at full strength, missing a key piece of their lineup in Royce Lewis, they still have plenty of power and are capable of doing damage against Lorenzen.
Look for regression to catch up to Lorenzen tonight, preventing him from finishing the sixth inning.
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