PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite MLB plays of the day and will track all his bets in the Action Network app.
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Pirates vs Astros
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Hunter Brown To Record The Win (+120)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” homename=”Astros” homeslug=”houston-astros” date=”Tuesday, Jul 30″ time=”8:10pm ET” network=”SCHN” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/676387_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
I’ve infrequently dabbled in the pitcher win markets this season, as a seemingly never-ending set of variables comes into play when assessing this market.
However, Tuesday’s stars are aligned for the Astros and Hunter Brown.
After a very shaky start to his campaign, Brown has been dominant. He’s picked up the win in eight of his last nine starts, registering a 1.80 ERA. His 19% hard-hit rate allowed over that span leads all qualified pitchers by a wide margin.
Tonight, Brown will face off against a Pirates lineup that has been struggling mightily of late. Since the All-Star break, Pittsburgh bats are hitting .198 against right-handed pitching, with a .556 OPS and 57 wRC+.
On the flip side, Bailey Falter returns from a short stint on the injured list to start for the Pirates. Before his injury, Falter had been struggling, with a 6.23 ERA over his last six appearances. And he was shaky in his lone rehab start, allowing five hits and two runs in only three innings.
Falter is a pitch-to-contact hurler who doesn’t miss many bats (whiff and strikeout rates in the eighth and tenth percentile, respectively). The Astros are an excellent contact team with a .744 OPS against finesse pitchers this season.
I expect the Astros’ offense to break through early, leading to innings from the Pirates’ lower-leverage relievers. And while the Astros bullpen did blow the save on Monday, I’m confident the unit will rebound tonight.
I have the Astros with the advantage in almost every facet of tonight’s game, so I love this spot at plus-odds.
Pick: Hunter Brown To Record The Win (+120, bet365) | Play to (+105)
- Bet Pirates vs Astros at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.
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