We’re profiling five situational betting picks for August 3, hinging on weather, starting pitching and more.
Sunday’s MLB schedule starts early; Astros vs. Red Sox gets underway at 11:35 a.m. ET, and we’ll be covering that game from a PRO perspective separately for subscribers, too.
Below, these five MLB predictions are courtesy of PRO Systems and Bet Labs – our backtested betting models.
With the first pick going off at 1:40 p.m. ET, check out several data-driven MLB picks using PRO data.
MLB Picks, Trends for August 3: Situational Model Predictions
Let’s start with the PRO System titled “Soft Starters with Neutral Winds,” a proprietary model designed to capitalize on betting the under. It’s active on four MLB picks for August 3!
This trend has won better than 59% since we started tracking. It focuses on games with softer home starting pitchers (low strikeout rates and moderate WHIP), in games three or four of a series.
Here are the four games that fit the trend for Sunday, based on pitching matchups and weather.
- Yankees vs. Marlins Under
- Twins vs. Guardians Under
- Diamondbacks vs. Athletics Under
- Padres vs. Cardinals Under
[betlabsembed systemid=”1479176″ systemname=”Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Unders with Soft Starters and Neutral Winds” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20home%20team’s%20game%20number%20is%20between%2037%20and%20169%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2036%25%20and%2065%25%22%2C%22the%20series%20game%20%23%20is%20between%203%20and%204%22%2C%22the%20home%20pitcher’s%20strikeout%20rate%20is%20between%200.2%20and%200.53%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20starting%20pitcher’s%20WHIP%20is%20between%201.15%20and%202.05%22%2C%22the%20average%20wind%20speed%20is%20between%200%20and%2015%20mph%22%2C%22the%20wind%20direction%20is%20From%20Right%20or%20Left%20to%20Right%20or%20Right%20To%20Left%20or%20In%20or%20From%20Left%20or%20None%20or%20Left%20To%20Right%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$11,743″ record=”480-331-40″ winpct=”59%”][/betlabsembed]
By this stage, hitters have adjusted after facing multiple pitchers, and scouting reports are more refined. However, scoring is often suppressed when there isn’t overpowering velocity on the mound and wind conditions are neutral, preventing run-inducing environments.
While the Yankees vs. Marlins game isn’t technically affected by weather, played in a dome, several other models also point to the under.
Meanwhile, the Orioles vs. Cubs under Sunday is a match for two PRO Systems, which essentially anticipate a low-scoring tilt.
Specifically, a 60%-winning trend labeled “Wrigley Field Unders” concentrates solely on Cubs home games, where wind direction plays a significant role in scoring outcomes.
When the wind blows in or across the field (from the sides) and the total opens between 8 and 13, betting on the under has produced a beefy edge.
Sunday’s weather and odds for Orioles vs. Cubs are a perfect match for a couple of under-themed models you can check out below.
[betlabsembed systemid=”1471541″ systemname=”PRO: Wrigley Field Unders” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%2C%22the%20home%20team%20is%20Chicago%20Cubs%22%2C%22the%20opening%20total%20is%20between%208%20and%2013%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20wind%20direction%20is%20In%20or%20From%20Left%20or%20Left%20to%20Right%20or%20From%20Right%20or%20Right%20To%20Left%22%2C%22the%20average%20wind%20speed%20is%20between%205%20and%2040%20mph%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$8,080″ record=”297-196-24″ winpct=”60%”][/betlabsembed]
[betlabsembed systemid=”1474951″ systemname=”Evan Abrams – Wrigley Field Unders, Early Games, Wind Direction” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20game%20was%20played%20in%20Wrigley%20Field%22%2C%22the%20game%20was%20played%20between%2012%20and%2018%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%208%20and%20100%22%2C%22the%20wind%20direction%20is%20From%20Right%20or%20In%20or%20From%20Left%20or%20Right%20To%20Left%20or%20Left%20to%20Right%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$8,058″ record=”219-126-16″ winpct=”63%”][/betlabsembed]
PRO System Pick: Cubs vs. Orioles Under
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