All 30 MLB teams are in action on Friday, and that means one thing: plenty of betting value.
Our “Payoff Pitch” podcast has MLB picks and odds, including top predictions for Friday, May 24.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”San Francisco Giants” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup] | 6:10 p.m. | Mets -143 |
| [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:15 p.m. | Cubs F5 (-152) |
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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Mets -143 vs. Giants” subtext=”6:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/subheader]
Christian Scott is on the mound against Kyle Harrison, and I just think Scott is the better pitcher.
Scott only has a few starts, so his sample size is a bit smaller. But he has an xERA of 3.1 and his stuff+ grades out above the average or right around it. He’s limiting barrels, his hard-hit rate is down and he generates a near 30% whiff rate with three of his four pitches.
He hasn’t gotten the high strikeout numbers that we saw in the minors, but he has three above-average pitches and a fastball that’s due for some positive regression.
Harrison is an above-average league pitcher. He has an xERA of 4.1, so he may be due for some negative regression here with only a 92 stuff+ rating and high barrel rates.
He should be giving up more home runs than he did last year, and I expect the Mets to hit some today.
I know Sean [Zerillo] likes them tonight, as well.
Pick: Mets -143
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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Cubs F5 (-152) vs. Cardinals” subtext=”8:15 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png”][/subheader]
By Sean Zerillo
I’m going to continue to back Shota Imanaga, the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year.
This will be the first game he pitches in this season with the wind significantly blowing away from him, so we’ll see what that impact is. His ERA has been so low, as has his home run-fly ball rate.
Regardless of the weather, he’s just a far better pitcher than Miles Mikolas.
Mikolas has an xERA of 4.9, which is better than last season’s 5.44. This is a continuing theme of Mikolas, who’s looking like a replacement-level pitcher. And while the underlying metrics have been better for him this year, he’s a full run worse than Imanaga.
The Cardinals have generally been better batters against lefties than righties, but this season, they’re 27th in that category. The Cubs aren’t much better against righties, sitting at 19th.
I projected this at -166 for the first five, and we’ll continue riding Imanaga until he gives us a reason not to.
Pick: Cubs F5 -152
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