Projections and systems are all over a couple picks for MLB Friday.
As the MLB season swings into action, Friday’s lineup presents opportunities to leverage our premium betting models for two games: Rays vs. Rockies in the early window and the Chicago Cubs battling the Arizona Diamondbacks later tonight.
Our analysis includes unique angles rooted in backtested betting trends and in-house expert comparisons through PRO Projections.
Let’s delve into the smartest picks for this MLB Friday, which include sharp moneyline and over/under picks.
MLB Picks, Odds Friday: Model Predictions for Rockies vs Rays, Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
Rockies vs. Rays Pick Friday
Starting at 4:10 p.m. ET, the Rockies vs. Rays matchup caught the attention of PRO Systems.
With Kyle Freeland of the Rockies squaring off against Ryan Pepiot of the Rays, there’s value to be found in backing the underdog Colorado today.
Despite the Rockies’ lackluster standing, the PRO Systems indicator “Early Season Dogs” suggests a promising scenario. Historically, betting on road underdogs with odds of +131 or better, when the total is 7.5 or higher, yields a win rate of 43% if it’s between games 1 and 9 of the season. This system, coupled with Friday’s consensus odds of Rays -215 and Rockies +180, highlights the Rockies as a smart moneyline pick, as they’re projected to win about 36% of the time.
PRO Systems Pick: Rays Moneyline
[betlabsembed systemid=”1245759″ systemname=”Early Season Dogs (PRO)” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%207.5%20and%2016%22%2C%22the%20closing%20moneyline%20is%20between%20131%20and%20500%22%2C%22the%20team’s%20game%20number%20is%20between%201%20and%209%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Visitor%20team%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Dog%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$8,628″ record=”313-415-0″ winpct=”43%”][/betlabsembed]
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Pick Friday
Later in the day, the Cubs and Diamondbacks clash presents another intriguing betting angle. Our PRO Projections signal the best bet lies in the game going under the total of 8.5 runs.
With starting pitchers Jameson Taillon for the Cubs and Merrill Kelly for the D-backs, our projections find the market’s over/under of 8.5 to be slightly overvalued. Our in-house fair total suggests an O/U of 8.01, presenting a noticeable edge. Therefore, betting the under in this matchup appears to be the best route, graded B by our models.
PRO Pick: Cubs-Diamondbacks Under
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
_InlineAdBlock