MLB Picks Friday: Phillies vs Nationals Wiseguys’ Betting Edge (April 5)

MLB Picks, Odds: Phillies vs Nationals

*MLB odds via BetMGM as of 1:44 p.m. ET Friday

The 2024 MLB regular season is still young, which can be an advantage for sharp bettors.

Because sample sizes are small, it can be difficult for oddsmakers to properly price games, resulting in large edges for those looking to make MLB picks.

Friday’s Phillies vs. Nationals over/under is a prime example.

For what it’s worth, the Action Network’s MLB betting model isn’t rocking with edges on Friday, though Phillies vs. Nationals is easily the biggest edge of today’s slate.

In fact, this MLB pick is offering so much value that the wiseguys are already getting down on it as well.

Let me explain.

MLB Pick: Phillies vs. Nationals Over/Under

The Phillies vs. Nationals over/under sits at 8.5 as of the time of writing.

However, a quick look at the line movement history for this total shows it initially opened at 9.

Specifically, Action Labs’ Bet Signals are reporting that sharps were quick to steam under 9, explaining why the consensus has dipped to 8.5.

Steam refers to sudden, uniform line movement across the market that is often the result of bettors with the resources and respect to move odds getting down on the same wager at multiple sportsbooks, all at once.

Perhaps most importantly for MLB bettors right now, our PRO Projections are still finding value, and oodles of it, even after the move.

We project this total at 8, resulting in a 4.2% edge for those interested in aligning themselves with the professionals on Friday night.

PRO Report Pick: Under 8.5 (+100) via BetMGM

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