MLB Picks, Best Bets, Props, Predictions Today – May 6

With 16 games on the docket for May 6, baseball bettors have no shortage of options. There are plenty of props to choose from and predictions to make, which is exactly what our MLB betting experts have done.

After digging through the odds, they’ve identified betting value and broken down their picks below.

Continue reading for today’s MLB bets bets.

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MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup]	6:40 p.m.	Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Steals (+200)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Twins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png”][/teammatchup]	7:40 p.m.	Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Home Runs (+340)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Chicago White Sox” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png” secondfullname=”Kansas City Royals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png”][/teammatchup]	7:40 p.m.	Sean Burke Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Seattle Mariners” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” secondfullname=”Oakland Athletics” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png”][/teammatchup]	10:05 p.m.	Brent Rooker Over 0.5 Home Runs (+333)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Dodgers vs Marlins Best Bet: Teams Running All Over Miami”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Steals (+200)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” awayslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” homename=”Miami Marlins” homeslug=”miami-marlins” date=”Tuesday, May 6″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

The Marlins are giving up stolen bases at a ridiculous rate. They’re allowing 1.82 steals per game, which is easily the most in the league. Tampa Bay is in second at 1.18 and no team allowed more than one steal per game in 2024.

Additionally, the Marlins have four pitchers who rank top 10 in steals allowed per game. Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera lead the league, while tonight’s starter, Cal Quantrill, is tied for 10th.

The Marlins have three catchers on the roster and none of them have been able to slow down the running game. Liam Hicks is 2-for-17 in attempting to nab base stealers. Nick Fortes is 1-for-12, and Augustin Ramirez is 0-for-11. It doesn’t matter who draws the start behind the plate tonight.

Shohei Ohtani is one of eight players with double-digit steals this season and has a stolen base in all four games against Miami this season. Quantrill has been one of the most hittable pitchers in the league, allowing a .342 batting average supported by a .329 xBA (2nd percentile). He’s 15th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity. Quantrill has an ugly 16:10 K:BB, so Ohtani should have no trouble getting on base. The main issue is keeping him in the yard. Home runs don’t help us here.

Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Steals (+200)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Twins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Chicago White Sox” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png” secondfullname=”Kansas City Royals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Seattle Mariners” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” secondfullname=”Oakland Athletics” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Orioles vs Twins Best Bet: Can Buxton Stay Hot?”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Home Runs (+340)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” awayname=”Baltimore Orioles” awayslug=”baltimore-orioles” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png” homename=”Minnesota Twins” homeslug=”minnesota-twins” date=”Tuesday, May 6″ time=”7:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

Byron Buxton has been a great power bat throughout his career and is off to a great start with seven homers through 32 games.

The matchup today is great vs. Cade Povich, who has been a gas can in his career against righties. Povich owns a large 1.83 HR/9 in his career against righties to go along with heavy fly ball rates. I have the true odds on Buxton homering at around +280, making this a great EV bet.

Pick: Byron Buxton Over 0.5 Home Runs (+340)

[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jim Turvey’s White Sox vs Royals Best Bet: Fade Burke”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Sean Burke Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png” awayname=”Chicago White Sox” awayslug=”chicago-white-sox” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” homename=”Kansas City Royals” homeslug=”kansas-city-royals” date=”Tuesday, May 6″ time=”7:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Jim Turvey

Sean Burke has seen improvements to his strikeout totals as the season has gone along, but he’ll face a stiff test tonight. The Royals have a 18.6% strikeout rate (the lowest in the league) against right-handed pitching, and a lot of the underlying numbers suggest Burke’s increased strikeout totals of late have been a bit fraudulent.

Burke has averaged only 10 swinging strikes in his past three starts, each of which saw him tally five strikeouts — that ratio is off from the standard. There wasn’t been any sort of Stuff+ or velocity increase over those starts, so combined with the matchup, I’m taking the under.

Pick: Sean Burke Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110)

[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Mariners vs Athletics Best Bet: Value on Rooker in Sacramento”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Brent Rooker Over 0.5 Home Runs (+333)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” awayname=”Seattle Mariners” awayslug=”seattle-mariners” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” homename=”Oakland Athletics” homeslug=”oakland-athletics” date=”Tuesday, May 6″ time=”10:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

The odds are a little low on Brent Rooker today, but the spot is absolutely fantastic. Sacramento has been one of the best ballparks in the league for hitters this season and we have some of the best weather we’ve had with winds blowing out at 6 mph and temperatures in the low 80s during the game.

Emerson Hancock isn’t a terrible pitcher, but has struggled heavily with righty power in his career, giving up a massive 2.4 HR/9 despite playing in a pitcher friendly ballpark. I have the true odds on Rooker at around +250, making this a great EV bet.

Pick: Brent Rooker Over 0.5 Home Runs (+333)

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