MLB Picks, Best Bets, Props, Predictions Today – May 14

Thanks to a pair of doubleheaders, today’s MLB slate is loaded with 17 — yes, 17! — games. There’s plenty of baseball to watch and a wealth of betting options, which means we need to find a way to narrow the board to the best of the best.

Well, we’ve done exactly that, so continue reading as today’s MLB best bets are below.

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MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png”][/teammatchup]	1:05 p.m.	Erick Fedde Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Detroit Tigers” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png”][/teammatchup]	6:40 p.m.	Red Sox Moneyline (+185)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Houston Astros” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png”][/teammatchup]	8:10 p.m.	Astros Moneyline (-135)
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Oakland Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png”][/teammatchup]	10:10 p.m.	Athletics Moneyline (+230)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Cardinals vs Phillies Best Bet: Fade Fedde”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Erick Fedde Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” awayname=”St. Louis Cardinals” awayslug=”st.-louis-cardinals” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” homename=”Philadelphia Phillies” homeslug=”philadelphia-phillies” date=”Wednesday, May 14″ time=”1:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB Network” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

This seems like a clear sell-high spot for Erick Fedde, who is coming off arguably the best start of his career as he threw a complete game shutout of the Nationals and racked up a season-high eight strikeouts.

However, Philadelphia is a much tougher matchup and Fedde is still having one of the weakest strikeout years of his career.

Fedde’s SwStr% is all the way down at 6.9%, his worst mark since the shortened 2020 season. Fedde has the second-lowest SwStr% and the eighth-lowest CSW% among qualified pitchers. His 15% strikeout rate ranks in the eighth percentile. Fedde led with a cutter last season in his return from the KBO, but is now prioritizing the sinker, throwing it more than 40% of the time. It’s boosted his ground-ball rate, but it’s not going to help on the strikeout side.

Philadelphia has the fifth-lowest strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching over the past 30 days. Today’s projected lineup has combined for an elite 18.6% strikeout rate against righties this season (921 plate appearances). Fedde’s strikeout rate is down to 13.7% against left-handed hitters and he should see at least five of them today.

Pick: Erick Fedde Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Detroit Tigers” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Houston Astros” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Oakland Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” secondfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Red Sox vs Tigers Best Bet: Fade Skubal?”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Red Sox Moneyline (+185)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” awayname=”Boston Red Sox” awayslug=”boston-red-sox” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” homename=”Detroit Tigers” homeslug=”detroit-tigers” date=”Wednesday, May 14″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Bet Labs

Betting against Tarik Skubal is never fun, but elite pitchers don’t win every start.

This Bet Labs’ system fades elite teams (60%+ win rate) when public money is heavily skewed against the underdog (≤35% backing). It targets road underdogs on minor losing streaks (1-to-3 games) in the regular season. The idea is that betting markets often overprice good teams, especially at home, which creates value on contrarian visitors. Despite a low win rate, big plus-money payouts generate positive ROI.

<br />

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+185)

[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Royals vs Astros Best Bet: Strong Situational Spot for Houston”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Astros Moneyline (-135)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” awayname=”Kansas City Royals” awayslug=”kansas-city-royals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” homename=”Houston Astros” homeslug=”houston-astros” date=”Wednesday, May 14″ time=”8:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Bet Labs

In the early part of the season, teams — especially those on extended road or home stands — often develop mini streaks. When a team with this kind of momentum faces an opponent coming off a solid loss (but not a blowout), the rhythm-driven team can be undervalued.

This is especially true when the line modestly shifts in their favor, as that indicates sharp support. Rhythm and routine drive consistency and teams in streaks are more “in rhythm” than those shifting locations or rebounding from losses, especially when early season variance hasn’t fully settled into the betting market.

The Astros have won two of their past three and are playing their sixth straight game at home, while the Royals are coming off a loss and playing their third game of a three-game road trip. As a result, this system is a match for tonight’s game.

<br />

Pick: Astros Moneyline (-135)

[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Disturco’s Athletics vs Dodgers Best Bet: Can A’s Win Again?”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Athletics Moneyline (+230)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” awayname=”Oakland Athletics” awayslug=”oakland-athletics” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” homename=”Los Angeles Dodgers” homeslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” date=”Wednesday, May 14″ time=”10:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Bet Labs

After cashing the A’s moneyline yesterday, we’re going back to the well tonight.

This Bet Labs system targets road underdogs playing interleague games as they have historically been undervalued by oddsmakers. Since 2016, despite winning only 43.3% of these games, these teams have generated a consistent, positive 4.6% ROI. This trend has proven reliable, indicating market inefficiencies in how these specific matchups are priced — likely due to a lack of familiarity between leagues and public overconfidence in home favorites.

<br />

Pick: Athletics Moneyline (+230)

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