MLB Picks, Best Bets, Props, Predictions Today – May 12

With 11 games on the schedule for Monday, May 12, baseball fans have plenty of betting opportunities.

Our MLB betting experts have looked over the odds and identified the best bets and props on the board. So, continue reading as today’s MLB best bets are below.

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MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Detroit Tigers” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png”][/teammatchup]	6:40 p.m.	Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup]	7:10 p.m.	David Peterson Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+105)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup]	9:40 p.m.	Yusei Kikuchi Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”San Francisco Giants” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png”][/teammatchup]	9:45 p.m.	Under 8 (-110)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Red Sox vs Tigers Best Bet: Matchup Favors Devers”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” awayname=”Boston Red Sox” awayslug=”boston-red-sox” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” homename=”Detroit Tigers” homeslug=”detroit-tigers” date=”Monday, May 12″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

We don’t have a huge sample size on Tigers’ starter Jackson Jobe, but he grades out as an above-average matchup for lefty power. Rafael Devers has been a lot better after his slow start to the season, and the underlying numbers show that he’s due for some positive regression for homers. Devers has career-high numbers for barrel rate, hard-hit rate and fly-ball rate. I have the true odds of him homering at around +350, making this a great bet.

Pick: Rafael Devers Over 0.5 Home Runs (+400)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Detroit Tigers” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”New York Mets” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” secondfullname=”San Diego Padres” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”San Francisco Giants” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Derek Carty’s Pirates vs Mets Pick: Fade Peterson”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”David Peterson Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+105)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” homename=”New York Mets” homeslug=”new-york-mets” date=”Monday, May 12″ time=”7:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Derek Carty

There is a value opportunity on David Peterson’s walks allowed prop. THE BAT X is projecting 2.08 walks allowed with a 64% chance that he records at least two walks allowed. If you can get the over at +105 or better, there is great value.

Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!

Pick: David Peterson Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (+105)

[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Jim Turvey’s Angels vs Padres Best Bet: Regression Looming for Kikuchi”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Yusei Kikuchi Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Angels” awayslug=”los-angeles-angels” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” homename=”San Diego Padres” homeslug=”san-diego-padres” date=”Monday, May 12″ time=”9:40 p.m. ET ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Jim Turvey

Yusei Kikuchi has seen a notable drop in his strikeout rate this season, and there appears to be fire for this smoke. His velocity is down over one mph from last season, he is getting fewer chases (28.5% to 22.3% O-Swing% drop) and he is getting far fewer swings-and-misses (12.8% to 8.5% SwStr%).

The worry here is that despite that drop, he still has cleared this total in all but one of his eight starts and he has five or six strikeouts in each start, except for one blowup against Minnesota. However, this matchup — the Padres and their 19.2% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season — will be his toughest yet. RotoGrinders projects Kikuchi for 3.9 strikeouts, and this is one of the projections’ favorite props.

Pick: Yusei Kikuchi Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-118)

[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Diamondbacks vs Giants Best Bet: System Favors Under”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 8 (-110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” awayslug=”arizona-diamondbacks” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” homename=”San Francisco Giants” homeslug=”san-francisco-giants” date=”Monday, May 12″ time=”9:45 p.m. ET ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Bet Labs

The Bets Labs “Contrarian Unders for Winnings Teams” system has found value on tonight’s Diamondbacks vs. Giants matchup.

Both teams have solid win percentages (51%–100%), but the public is heavily favoring the over (≤35% under bets). In matchups between winning teams, sportsbooks often inflate totals due to perceived offensive capability. However, these teams also tend to have strong pitching staffs and good late-game execution, which leads to a profitable edge on the under.

<br />

Pick: Under 8 (-110)

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