MLB Picks, Best Bets, Props, Predictions Today – May 1

May kicks off with an 11-game slate, including a matinee featuring Paul Skenes.

Our MLB betting experts have 2 picks for the Cubs vs. Pirates game, but that’s not all — far from it, actually. There are also picks in Brewers vs. White Sox, Nationals vs. Phillies and Red Sox vs. Blue Jays, so continue reading for today’s MLB best bets.

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MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png”][/teammatchup]	12:35 p.m.	Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-126)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png”][/teammatchup]	12:35 p.m.	First 5 Innings Under 4 (-125)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” secondfullname=”Chicago White Sox” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png”][/teammatchup]	2:10 p.m.	Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 Home Runs (+480)
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Washington Nationals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png”][/teammatchup]	6:45 p.m.	James Wood Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425)
[teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup]	7:05 p.m.	Jarren Duran 2+ Total Bases (-105)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Will Priester’s Cubs vs Pirates Best Bet: Big Game Coming for Skenes?”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-126)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” awayname=”Chicago Cubs” awayslug=”chicago-cubs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” homename=”Pittsburgh Pirates” homeslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” date=”Thursday, May 1″ time=”12:35 p.m. ET ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Will Priester

The Cubs have been really good this season and although Paul Skenes hasn’t demonstrated his strikeout prowess consistently this year, I’m still going to side with him and his body of work.

If he’s on, I think he can neutralize any team, and I’m hoping he carries the momentum from his previous start into this one. He “only” has a 27% strikeout rate, but I suspect there may be on an uptick if some big performances show up.

Pick: Paul Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-126)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” secondfullname=”Chicago White Sox” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Washington Nationals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” secondfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Cubs vs Pirates Best Bet: Back Both Starting Pitchers”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”First 5 Innings Under 4 (-125)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” awayname=”Chicago Cubs” awayslug=”chicago-cubs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” homename=”Pittsburgh Pirates” homeslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” date=”Thursday, May 1″ time=”12:35 p.m. ET ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

Paul Skenes had one blip against St. Louis, but other than that rough start, he’s allowed two or fewer runs in every outing and outdueled Yoshinobu Yamamoto last time out in a win over Los Angeles.

Chicago poses a tough test, but Skenes gets them in an early game at PNC Park. It’s also a getaway day for the Cubs, who are set to head to Milwaukee tonight, so we could see some sleepy bats.

Colin Rea is the bigger question. The Cubs are doing their emphasize-the-fastball thing with him and the results have been tremendous as Rea has allowed just two earned runs all season. He throws a 94-mph heater that doesn’t appear to be anything special, but he’s throwing it more than half the time. Outside of the fastball, Rea is throwing six (!!!) other pitches 5-10% of the time. The kitchen-sink approach has produced a career-high strikeout rate and a career-low hard-hit rate for Rea. His xERA is just above 3.00.

Rea draws a Pittsburgh offense that ranks bottom five in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ against righties. It’s a nice spot and Rea has made some intriguing changes.

Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4 (-125)

[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Brewers vs White Sox Best Bet: Great Spot for Chourio”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 Home Runs (+480)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” awayname=”Milwaukee Brewers” awayslug=”milwaukee-brewers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png” homename=”Chicago White Sox” homeslug=”chicago-white-sox” date=”Thursday, May 1″ time=”2:10 p.m. ET ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

This is a great spot today for the Brewers and FanDuel seems to have them drastically mispriced.

The weather isn’t bad with winds blowing out to left center for the majority of the early stages of the game and temperatures only a bit below average. The matchup vs. Sean Burke is also solid as he’s got close to neutral splits and has been hit hard by righties while allowing heavy fly ball and hard contact numbers. I have the true odds around +400, making this a great EV bet.

Pick: Jackson Chourio Over 0.5 Home Runs (+480)

[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer Nationals vs Phillies Best Bet: Can Wood Stay Hot?”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”James Wood Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” awayname=”Washington Nationals” awayslug=”washington-nationals” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” homename=”Philadelphia Phillies” homeslug=”philadelphia-phillies” date=”Thursday, May 1″ time=”6:45 p.m. ET ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

James Wood has been on an absolute tear to start the season, hitting nine homers through 31 games.

He’s gotten lucky with homer/fly ball variance, but the underlying barrel numbers are some of the best in the league, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate have been great. Taijuan Walker isn’t a great pitcher at this point in his career and has struggled heavily in the past few seasons vs. lefties, allowing a large amount of fly balls and hard contact. I have the true odds here around +370, making this a great bet.

Pick: James Wood Over 0.5 Home Runs (+425)

[anchor name=”5″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Dead President Picks’ Red Sox vs Blue Jays Best Bet: Favorable Matchup for Duran”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jarren Duran 2+ Total Bases (-105)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” awayname=”Boston Red Sox” awayslug=”boston-red-sox” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” homename=”Toronto Blue Jays” homeslug=”toronto-blue-jays” date=”Thursday, May 1″ time=”7:05 p.m. ET ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Dead President Picks

Jarren Duran has a great matchup tonight against Jose Berrios.

The Red Sox outfielder is batting .500 over 18 at-bats against Berrios and has logged eight extra-base hits, including three home runs over those at-bats.

We’re getting tremendous value on this play tonight.

Pick: Jarren Duran 2+ Total Bases (-105)

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