MLB Picks, Best Bets, Props, Predictions Today – July 28

All 30 teams are in action as there are 15 games across the MLB slate for Monday, July 28. The trade deadline is rapidly approaching, which means this week will be crucial as teams decide whether to buy or sell.

There’s certainly a lot going on, but our MLB betting experts are all over it as they’ve sifted through the latest MLB odds and have already made their MLB picks and predictions for today.

So, continue reading as today’s MLB best bets are below.

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MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup]	6:35 p.m.	Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 Home Runs (+550)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png”][/teammatchup]	7:05 p.m.	1st 5 Innings Over/Under
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup]	7:40 p.m.	Over/Under
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”San Francisco Giants” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png”][/teammatchup]	9:45 p.m.	Mitch Keller Outs Prop
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Blue Jays vs Orioles Best Bet: Holliday Showing Value”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 Home Runs (+550)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” awayname=”Toronto Blue Jays” awayslug=”toronto-blue-jays” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” homename=”Baltimore Orioles” homeslug=”baltimore-orioles” date=”Monday, July 28″ time=”6:35 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

I’m going hard on the Baltimore’s lefties today as the spot and odds are far too good. Opposing pitcher Chris Bassitt has been better this season, but he’s still allowing above-average homers to lefties (1.38 HR/9) and has been one of the best matchups for lefty power over the past two years.

Baltimore is tied for the best ballpark for lefty power the past three seasons, and it has been — by far — the best ballpark for lefty power this season. The weather should be great for hitting, with temperatures in the mid-90s during the game. Holliday isn’t a huge home run hitter, but I have the true odds here more than 100 points lower, making this a great bet.

Pick: Jackson Holliday Over 0.5 Home Runs (+550)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” secondfullname=”New York Yankees” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” secondfullname=”San Francisco Giants” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Rays vs Yankees Best Bet: Back the Starters”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-118)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” awayname=”Tampa Bay Rays” awayslug=”tampa-bay-rays” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” homename=”New York Yankees” homeslug=”new-york-yankees” date=”Monday, July 28″ time=”7:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Bet Labs

This MLB first five innings system, titled “Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5),” is built around early game environments in which oddsmakers and sharp bettors anticipate limited scoring.

The foundation starts with a low closing total — between 3.5 and 6.5 — indicating an expected pitcher’s duel or poor hitting conditions. If the full-game total has moved down between half a run and one run from open to close, it signals smart money pushing the market toward the under. The model further refines this edge by requiring the juice on the under to remain within a sharp range, typically between -149 and -120, to avoid inflated pricing that could distort value.

Games played in modest wind conditions — between 4-9 mph — are included, as they often suppress offense without triggering dramatic public reaction. By isolating games across the past three seasons and targeting first-half unders in tightly lined, downward-trending markets, this system consistently captured value this season.

This season, this system is cashing 65% of its picks (83-45-0) and has generated a 15% ROI.

[betlabsembed systemid=”1486200″ systemname=”Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20game%20was%20played%20during%20the%202025%20or%202024%20or%202023%20season%22%2C%22the%20full%20game%20o%2Fu%20change%20from%20open%20to%20close%20is%20between%20-1%20and%20-0.5%22%2C%22the%20juice%20%20is%20between%20-149%20and%20-120%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%203.5%20and%206.5%22%2C%22the%20average%20wind%20speed%20is%20between%204%20and%209%20mph%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$19″ record=”283-218-5″ winpct=”56%”][/betlabsembed]

[quickslipbasic bookname=”DraftKings” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/07/Screenshot-2025-07-28-at-7.44.28%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”Parlay These Picks Instantly!” buttonlink=”https://www.scoresandodds.com/all/parlay?quickslip=1&slipAdd=294d21fc-bf18-4693-b7f3-3e0274b23e48&ref=10001″][/quickslipbasic]

Pick: 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-118)

[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bet Labs’ Cubs vs Brewers Best Bet: Scoring Should be Limited”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 8 (-110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” awayname=”Chicago Cubs” awayslug=”chicago-cubs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” homename=”Milwaukee Brewers” homeslug=”milwaukee-brewers” date=”Monday, July 28″ time=”7:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Bet Labs

The “Silent Sharp Unders” system targets regular-season MLB games between two teams that are performing well, yet the total has quietly dropped from open to close. These are games featuring competent, winning teams with recent success, stable weather conditions and closing totals in a common scoring range.

Despite both teams showing strength, the market subtly favors the under — likely due to matchup specifics or pitching. By following this soft signal — when the public eye is more focused on win streaks than totals — this system finds value in betting against inflated scoring expectations.

Overall, this system has produced a 9% ROI as it has cashed 56% of its lifetime picks (1266-994-89). This season, the ROI has bumped up to 12% as the system is hitting at a 59% clip (133-93-5).

[betlabsembed systemid=”1479171″ systemname=”Evan Abrams / Bet Labs – Silent Sharp Unders” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20temperature%20is%20between%2034%20and%2087%20degrees%22%2C%22the%20visiting%20team’s%205%20Game%20recent%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2040%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%205%20Game%20recent%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2040%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%207.5%20and%2010%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20game%20number%20is%20between%206%20and%20162%22%2C%22the%20visitor%20team’s%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2046%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20home%20team’s%20win%20percentage%20is%20between%2046%25%20and%20100%25%22%2C%22the%20o%2Fu%20change%20from%20open%20to%20close%20is%20between%20-1%20and%200%22%2C%22the%20over%2Funder%20%25%20is%20between%201%25%20and%2029%25%22%2C%22betting%20on%20the%20Under%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$22,005″ record=”1266-994-89″ winpct=”56%”][/betlabsembed]

Pick: Under 8 (-110)

[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Derek Carty’s Pirates vs Giants Pick: Keller Showing Value”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Mitch Keller Under 17.5 Outs (+145)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” homename=”San Francisco Giants” homeslug=”san-francisco-giants” date=”Monday, July 28″ time=”9:45 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Derek Carty

There may be some value on Mitch Keller’s pitching outs prop. THE BAT X is projecting him to record 16.59 pitching outs, and oddsmakers are implying 17.96. The model believes there is a 54% chance he records fewer than 18 pitching outs. If you can get the under at +145 or better, there is great value here.

Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!

Pick: Mitch Keller Under 17.5 Outs (+145)

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