MLB Picks, Best Bets, Props, Predictions Today – April 28

There are eight games on the MLB calendar for April 28. Our MLB betting experts have run their models and looked over the latest MLB odds to find the best value on the board.

They’ve found edges on multiple MLB prop picks, which you can read about below. So, be sure to continue reading for Monday’s MLB best bets.

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MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup]	6:35 p.m.	Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 Home Runs (+700)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup]	6:35 p.m.	Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Oakland Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup]	8:05 p.m.	Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Detroit Tigers” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” secondfullname=”Houston Astros” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png”][/teammatchup]	8:10 p.m.	Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+360)
[teammatchup link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Atlanta Braves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”Colorado Rockies” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png”][/teammatchup]	8:40 p.m.	Ryan Feltner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Yankees vs Orioles Best Bet: Favorable Conditions for Chisholm”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 Home Runs (+700)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” awayname=”New York Yankees” awayslug=”new-york-yankees” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” homename=”Baltimore Orioles” homeslug=”baltimore-orioles” date=”Monday, April 28″ time=”6:35 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

If you have Bally Bet, I absolutely love this bet at +850, but it still offers great value at +700 at most other sites. The home run lines are way off for this game and Jazz Chisholm gets a great matchup vs. Tomoyuki Sugano, who grades out as a well-above-average matchup for lefty power.

The wind is blowing out today and the temperature should be in the mid 70s during the game. Nothing about this matchup is bad and Chisholm is priced like this is a terrible matchup. I have the true odds at close to +500, making this a fantastic EV bet.

Pick: Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 Home Runs (+700)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Oakland Athletics” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Detroit Tigers” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” secondfullname=”Houston Astros” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#5″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Atlanta Braves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”Colorado Rockies” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Prop Model’s Yankees vs Orioles Best Bet: Model Fading Sugano”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” awayname=”New York Yankees” awayslug=”new-york-yankees” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” homename=”Baltimore Orioles” homeslug=”baltimore-orioles” date=”Monday, April 28″ time=”6:35 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Prop Model

Tomoyuki Sugano’s strikeouts prop looks like a strong wager based on the current data. The line of 3.5 compares favorably based on our MLB simulations. The prop projects to hit 67.0% of the time based on the assumptions, and that represents a 10.48% edge. You can find all prop bet evaluations in ParlayIQ.

Pick: Tomoyuki Sugano Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130)

[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Athletics vs Rangers Best Bet: Back A’s Bats”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” awayname=”Oakland Athletics” awayslug=”oakland-athletics” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” homename=”Texas Rangers” homeslug=”texas-rangers” date=”Monday, April 28″ time=”8:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

Patrick Corbin burned me against the Angels, racking up six strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings. He faced the Athletics last time out and finished with just four strikeouts. Corbin has survived through three starts, but the underlying metrics are weak and facing a team in back-to-back outings typically favors the offense.

Corbin has a sub-10% swinging-strike rate and a 25.8% CSW% through three starts. He’s made a pitch mix adjustment, using his slider as his primary offering. Corbin is also throwing more cutters this season. Deemphasizing his sinker and 4-seamer is a good call as those pitches were obliterated last season. Corbin only has three strikeouts on the slider, but it has a solid 31% whiff rate. It’s just hard to expect a pitcher leaning on a 79 mph breaking ball to consistently miss bats.

The Athletics have made huge strides in the contact department. They have the ninth-lowest K% vs. left-handed pitchers and the fourth-lowest K% overall. The Athletics’ projected lineup has a 19% strikeout rate against lefties since the start of 2024. Corbin only allowed two earned runs over five innings last time against this group, but they had nine base runners and hit a pair of home runs.

I’m expecting the A’s lineup to fare better in its second look at Corbin.

Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Tigers vs Astros Best Bet: Alvarez Heating Up?”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+360)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” awayname=”Detroit Tigers” awayslug=”detroit-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” homename=”Houston Astros” homeslug=”houston-astros” date=”Monday, April 28″ time=”8:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

Yordan Alvarez finally broke his cold streak yesterday, and he’s not in a bad spot today. Opposing pitcher Jack Flaherty was good vs. lefties last season, but historically, he’s been a plus matchup for lefty power.

Alvarez only has three homers on the season, but his underlying numbers show he’s in for some good positive regression, and his swing speed this season has been elite. I have the true odds at around +300, making this a good bet.

Pick: Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Home Runs (+360)

[anchor name=”5″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Prop Model’s Braves vs Rockies Best Bet: Model Fading Feltner”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Ryan Feltner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” awayname=”Atlanta Braves” awayslug=”atlanta-braves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” homename=”Colorado Rockies” homeslug=”colorado-rockies” date=”Monday, April 28″ time=”8:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Prop Model

Ryan Felter’s strikeouts prop looks like a strong wager based on the current data. The line of 4.5 compares favorably based on our MLB simulations. The prop projects to hit 66.12% of the time based on the assumptions, and that represents a 7.96% edge. You can find all prop bet evaluations in ParlayIQ.

Pick: Ryan Feltner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)

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