MLB Picks, Best Bets, Props, Predictions Today – April 17

There are 10 games on the Thursday, April 17 slate, including several in the afternoon.

Day baseball is great and an awesome way to pass the time, but with games starting early, we have no time to waste. So, let’s get right into today’s MLB best bets.

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MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup]	12:10 p.m.	Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-140)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup]	6:35 p.m.	Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+150)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Detroit Tigers” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png”][/teammatchup]	6:40 p.m.	Reese Olson Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+110)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Erik Beimfohr’s Diamondbacks vs Marlins Best Bet: Can Carroll Stay Hot?”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-140)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” awayslug=”arizona-diamondbacks” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” homename=”Miami Marlins” homeslug=”miami-marlins” date=”Thursday, April 17″ time=”12:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Erik Beimfohr

Edward Cabrera has been extremely vulnerable against lefties (.365 xwOBA allowed since the start of 2024), and this will be just his second start back after missing a good chunk of Spring Training and the start of the season with a recurring blister issue. Cabrera was rocked in the spring and was also shaky in his first start, especially against lefties.

That’s good news for Corbin Carroll, who leads the charge in a lineup loaded with lefties, has been a top 3-5 hitter in baseball to start the season and has a .542 xwOBA and .526 xISO (!!) against right-handed pitching. The Marlins also have only one lefty in their horrendous bullpen, and he threw 20 pitches yesterday.

Pick: Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-140)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Miami Marlins” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Detroit Tigers” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Prop Model’s Guardians vs Orioles Best Bet: Trust Sugano’s Command”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+150)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” awayname=”Cleveland Guardians” awayslug=”cleveland-guardians” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” homename=”Baltimore Orioles” homeslug=”baltimore-orioles” date=”Thursday, April 17″ time=”6:35 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Prop Model

The walks allowed prop for Tomoyuki Sugano looks like a strong under wager based on the current data. The line of 1.5 compares favorably based on our MLB simulations.

The prop projects to hit 50.39% of the time based on the assumptions, and that represents a 10.39% edge. You can find all prop bet evaluations in ParlayIQ.

Pick: Tomoyuki Sugano Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+150)

[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Prop Model’s Royals vs Tigers Best Bet: Olson Worth a Wager”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Reese Olson Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” awayname=”Kansas City Royals” awayslug=”kansas-city-royals” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” homename=”Detroit Tigers” homeslug=”detroit-tigers” date=”Thursday, April 17″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Prop Model

Reese Olson’s walks allowed prop looks like a strong under wager based on the current data.

The line of 1.5 walks stacks up favorably to our MLB simulations, which project this prop to hit 58.57% of the time — a 10.95% edge.

You can find all prop bet evaluations in ParlayIQ.

Pick: Reese Olson Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+110)

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