A full 15-game slate awaits us on Wednesday, April 16. Our MLB betting experts have looked over today’s MLB odds and found some of the best value on the board.
In fact, they’ve zeroed in on a trio of plus-money picks. So, before the value is gone, let’s dig right into today’s MLB best bets.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”Fanatics” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/573837_FanaticsSportsbook20ALT.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/04/Screenshot-2025-04-16-at-8.41.11%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”Instantly Parlay These Picks!” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1481608938&deeplinkId[1]=ML1482162149&deeplinkId[2]=ML1481594436&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
MLB Best Bets, Prop Picks, Predictions 4/16
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | 6:35 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png”][/teammatchup] | 7:05 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:05 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Prop Model’s Guardians vs Orioles Best Bet: Fade Kremer”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Dean Kremer Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” awayname=”Cleveland Guardians” awayslug=”cleveland-guardians” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” homename=”Baltimore Orioles” homeslug=”baltimore-orioles” date=”Wednesday, April 16″ time=”6:35 p.m. ET ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]
By Prop Model
Dean Kremer’s strikeouts prop looks like a strong wager based on the current data. The line of 4.5 strikeouts grades out favorably based on our MLB simulations. The prop projects to hit 60.27% of the time based on the assumptions, and that represents a 13.76% edge. You can find all prop bet evaluations in ParlayIQ.
Pick: Dean Kremer Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
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| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup] |
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Sean Zerillo’s Red Sox vs Rays Best Bet: Back Boston at Plus Money”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Red Sox Moneyline (+120)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” awayname=”Boston Red Sox” awayslug=”boston-red-sox” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” homename=”Tampa Bay Rays” homeslug=”tampa-bay-rays” date=”Wednesday, April 16″ time=”7:05 p.m. ET ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Sean Zerillo
Zack Littell was a serviceable mid-rotation arm last season (4.34 xERA, 4.01 xFIP, 16.8% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+) in his first year as a full-time starter.
Despite permitting 12 runs over his past two starts, underlying indicators, velocity levels, and pitch mix say that he’s essentially the same pitcher as last year, aside from exchanging some four-seam fastballs for sinkers.
Littell’s projected rest-of-season FIP is between 4.21 and 4.79, with a slightly better average projection but a similar median projection (4.36 vs. 4.46) as Sean Newcomb’s (projected range of 4.37 to 4.90), despite vastly different walk rates.
Littell ranked in the 94th percentile in walk rate last season (4.7%) while Newcomb has a career 12.3% walk rate, which is significantly higher than the MLB average (9.2% in 2025).
Still, I make the bullpen battle very comparable.
I prefer to bet on Boston’s offense against right-handed pitching (projected 107 wRC+ vs. righties without Alex Bregman) and fade them against lefties (projected 98 wRC+ vs. lefties without Bregman). Also, their spark plug, Jarren Duran, may finally be heating up after a slow start.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+120, Bet to +108)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup] |
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Angels vs Rangers Best Bet: This Line is Too High”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+132)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Angels” awayslug=”los-angeles-angels” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” homename=”Texas Rangers” homeslug=”texas-rangers” date=”Wednesday, April 16″ time=”8:05 p.m. ET ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Patrick Corbin made his season debut last week and allowed three earned runs over four innings against the Cubs.
He didn’t record a strikeout and managed just seven whiffs as his Called Strike Plus Whiff Rate was a comically-low 20.3%. Corbin had the fifth-lowest CSW% among qualified pitchers in 2024 at 25.4%. His velocity was slightly down from last season, he got hit hard and he lasted just 74 pitches. I’m not overreacting to one start, but there’s nothing here that suggests a positive outcome moving forward.
The Angels were mediocre at making contact against lefties in 2024, ranking 16th in strikeout rate at 21.9% and tonight’s projected lineup has combined for a 21.8% mark since the start of last season. More importantly, the Angels should roll out a fully right-handed group (including switch hitters). Corbin struck out just 17.2% of righties last season, compared to 22.1% of lefties. His career strikeout rate is 8.1% higher against lefties (27.6% vs. 19.5%) and righties pounded him for a .205 ISO, a .519 SLG and a .377 wOBA in 2024.
My best guess is that the books are expecting Corbin to accumulate strikeouts through volume. If he survives six innings, he could reach four strikeouts. But, Texas had an off day Monday and got six innings out of Tyler Mahle last night — the bullpen is in good shape.
Long reliever Caleb Boushley hasn’t pitched since Saturday and , as a right-hander, he’d make sense as an option to cover multiple innings after Corbin. Since he was unsigned, Corbin didn’t pitch in Spring Training or in the minors. It’d be surprising to see him throw more than 90 pitches.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+132)
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Cleveland Guardians” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cleveland-guardians.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” secondfullname=”Texas Rangers” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png”][/teammatchup] |
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