MLB Picks, Best Bets, Props, Predictions Today – April 14

Mondays are often slow on the MLB schedule, but this week is an exception as there are 10 games on the docket.

The large slate means ample betting opportunities are available and our MLB betting experts have come through with some MLB prop picks for tonight. So, let’s see where they identified value and get right into today’s MLB best bets.

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MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png”][/teammatchup]	7:05 p.m.	Tanner Houck Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Atlanta Braves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup]	7:07 p.m.	Grant Holmes Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+150)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Detroit Tigers” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup]	7:40 p.m.	Tyler Alexander Under 2.5 Runs Allowed (-130)
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Twins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png”][/teammatchup]	7:40 p.m.	Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Homers (+390)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Red Sox vs Rays Best Bet: Fade Houck”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Tanner Houck Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” awayname=”Boston Red Sox” awayslug=”boston-red-sox” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” homename=”Tampa Bay Rays” homeslug=”tampa-bay-rays” date=”Monday, April 14″ time=”7:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

We’re 2-for-2 on this prop this season, though this is the first time we’re getting it at plus money.

It seems like the books are leaning into the matchup data from 2024, when Tampa Bay was a top-five strikeout team against right-handed pitching. However, the Rays have made more contact this season and their current lineup shouldn’t be as strikeout-heavy.

Tanner Houck actually pitched decently last time out, holding Toronto to one earned run over 6 2/3 innings. He didn’t get close to five strikeouts though. Houck has 10 strikeouts and seven walks over 16 1/3 innings. He’s been hit incredibly hard (53.1% hard-hit rate) and has given up tons of contact. Houck’s swinging-strike rate is a woeful 7.7% through three starts after he got just four whiffs against the Blue Jays. Houck posted a 16.1% strikeout rate from July through the end of last season (13 starts) and has picked up where he left off.

We aren’t at the point of fully trusting team splits, but the Rays have the seventh-lowest K% against right-handed pitching this season. They have Danny Jansen (18.8% K% vs. RHP since 2024) taking the majority of the catching reps, pushing the high-strikeout Ben Rortvedt to the bench and the extremely high-strikeout Alex Jackson off the roster. Josh Lowe (31.7% K%) is on the Injured List and fresh faces Junior Caminero, Jonathan Aranda and Jake Mangum have done a decent job of making contact in their young careers.

Tonight’s projected lineup has a 21.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of 2024, which would’ve ranked as the 12th lowest last season — not amazing, but no longer a slam-dunk matchup. The Rays should also have enough lefties in there to give Houck problems.

Pick: Tanner Houck Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+112)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” secondfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Atlanta Braves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Detroit Tigers” firstlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” secondfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”Minnesota Twins” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Derek Carty’s Braves vs Blue Jays Pick: Value on Holmes”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Grant Holmes Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+150)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” awayname=”Atlanta Braves” awayslug=”atlanta-braves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” homename=”Toronto Blue Jays” homeslug=”toronto-blue-jays” date=”Monday, April 14″ time=”7:07 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Derek Carty

THE BAT X is forecasting 1.55 walks allowed for Grant Holmes compared to the 1.94 walks allowed implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here. If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 53% of the time, resulting in a 33% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $33.35.

Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!

Pick: Grant Holmes Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (+150)

[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Allan Lem’s Tigers vs Brewers Best Bet: Few Runs Expected”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Tyler Alexander Under 2.5 Runs Allowed (-130)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” awayname=”Detroit Tigers” awayslug=”detroit-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” homename=”Milwaukee Brewers” homeslug=”milwaukee-brewers” date=”Monday, April 14″ time=”7:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Allan Lem

Tyler Alexander has been pitching well, helping to cover the losses to several of Milwaukee’s starting pitchers.

However, we haven’t seen Alexander work too deep into games, which is is part of the appeal to me. I project him closer to an outing of 80-85 pitches and no more than six innings. I’m also hoping we see Kerry Carpenter sit against a lefty, which would take a power bat out of the lineup.

The Tigers have an implied team total of just four runs and, through the first 15 games of the season, have graded out as league average against left-handed pitching. Their 92 wRC+ ranks 15th in baseball and means they are generating runs against left-handed pitching at just slightly below an average rate. For context, they had an 88 wRC+ last season against lefties, which ranked 23rd in baseball. Their ISO was also bottom five last season, although this season they are 12th, as Spencer Torkelson and Dillon Dingler have provided some early pop.

Overall, I like the matchup and don’t think Alexander will pitch very deep into this game.

Pick: Tyler Alexander Under 2.5 Runs Allowed (-130)

[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Mets vs Twins Best Bet: Will Alonso Go Deep?”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Homers (+390)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” awayname=”New York Mets” awayslug=”new-york-mets” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png” homename=”Minnesota Twins” homeslug=”minnesota-twins” date=”Monday, April 14″ time=”7:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

Pete Alonso is off to a good start to the season with four homers and is in a great spot today.

Joe Ryan is a massive fly ball pitcher, who has allowed a well-above-average amount of homers to righties in his career. The weather in Minnesota is cold, but the wind tonight is blowing out heavily and the ballpark is a upgrade for Alonso.

I have the true odds of Alonso homering today at around +350, which makes this a great EV bet.

Pick: Pete Alonso Over 0.5 Homers (+390)

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