MLB Picks, Best Bets, Props, Predictions Today – April 10

Today’s MLB slate is small with just six games on the docket. However, there’s still betting value to be found and our MLB betting experts have done just that.

So, let’s dive into the slate and look over their MLB best bets, picks and analysis for Thursday, April 10.

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MLB Best Bets Today

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Minnesota Twins” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png” secondfullname=”Kansas City Royals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png”][/teammatchup]	2:10 p.m.	Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs (+475)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” secondfullname=”Colorado Rockies” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png”][/teammatchup]	3:10 p.m.	Ryan Feltner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup]	7:15 p.m.	First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-128)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Grant Neiffer’s Twins vs Royals Best Bet: Strong Matchup for Witt”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs (+475)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png” awayname=”Minnesota Twins” awayslug=”minnesota-twins” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” homename=”Kansas City Royals” homeslug=”kansas-city-royals” date=”Thursday, April 10″ time=”2:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Grant Neiffer

Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the best hitters in the league and should hit 30+ homers this season, based on his underlying numbers.

The matchup he gets today is a good one as he’ll be going up against Bailey Ober, who has been crushed by righty power in his career, allowing 1.69 HR/9 to go along with a fly ball rate near 50% and a hard-contact rate above 35%. The weather in Kansas City today isn’t great, but it’s not terrible and the matchup more than makes up for it.

I have the true odds on Witt to homer today at under +400, making this a great EV bet.

Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 0.5 Home Runs (+475)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Minnesota Twins” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mind.png” secondfullname=”Kansas City Royals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” secondfullname=”Colorado Rockies” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Philadelphia Phillies” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” secondfullname=”Atlanta Braves” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png”][/teammatchup]

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Prop Model’s Brewers vs Rockies Best Bet: Fade Feltner”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Ryan Feltner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” awayname=”Milwaukee Brewers” awayslug=”milwaukee-brewers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” homename=”Colorado Rockies” homeslug=”colorado-rockies” date=”Thursday, April 10″ time=”3:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Prop Model

Ryan Feltner’s strikeouts prop looks like a strong wager based on the current data.

The line of 4.5 compares favorably to our MLB simulations. The prop projects to hit 67.77% of the time based on the assumptions, and that represents a 12.21% edge. You can find all prop bet evaluations in ParlayIQ.

Pick: Ryan Feltner Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125)

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Charlie Wright’s Phillies vs Braves Best Bet: Starters Should Throw Well”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-128)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-philadelphia-phillies.png” awayname=”Philadelphia Phillies” awayslug=”philadelphia-phillies” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” homename=”Atlanta Braves” homeslug=”atlanta-braves” date=”Thursday, April 10″ time=”7:15 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

I’m backing Spencer Schwellenbach again. He’s dazzled in two starts, tossing 14 scoreless innings and allowing just three hits and one walk while striking out 14. This will be his most challenging matchup, but the skills are undeniable.

Jesus Luzardo has gotten off to quite the start himself. After fanning 11 in his season debut, he struck out eight Dodgers across seven scoreless innings in his most recent outing. Luzardo’s velocity is up and he’s added a sweeper that’s become his second-most-used pitch. That sweeper has a silly 52.9% whiff rate so far. Luzardo’s arsenal looks amazing right now.

Atlanta has struggled to generate offense. The Braves have already been shut out three times, including in Schwellenbach’s first start. The Phillies have an intimidating lineup, but it helps that this game isn’t in Philadelphia.

Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-128)

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