Monday’s MLB Over/Under: Heaney Leads the Angels Against the Padres

Betting odds: Los Angeles Angels at San Diego Padres

• Over/Under: 8
• First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Probable Pitchers: Andrew Heaney (7-7, 3.96 ERA) vs. Clayton Richard (7-10, 5.13 ERA)

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 77-50-3, +21.7 units

Yesterday’s Result: Phillies-Padres Under 7.5, Arrieta vs. Lucchesi (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Despite dropping an under yesterday in San Diego, I’m returning there for tonight’s over/under as the Padres play host to the Angels.

Pursuing the under in the series opener has a lot to do with who will be toeing the rubber for the Halos, Andrew Heaney.

While Heaney hasn’t quite lived up to my expectations this season, he’s still been effective. In fact, he’s been one LA’s best hurlers this season thanks in large part to staying healthy.

Heaney has not only logged career highs in starts, innings, wins and strikeouts already, he’s also maintaining a solid 1.16 WHIP and .237 batting average against. The southpaw otherwise known as Heandog has been a consistent innings-eater as well, logging at least five frames in all but two of his 22 assignments.

Though the 27-year-old left-hander has been considerably better at home compared to on the road this season, an exception can be made here since he will be working at pitcher-friendly Petco Park — and under National League rules.

Not only that, Heaney figures to benefit from San Diego’s lackluster performance against left-handers. After finishing dead-last in the majors last year in team batting average opposite lefties (.226), the Padres haven’t improved much in that area, ranking 23rd with a .239 mark entering tonight’s action. They also strike out once every 3.78 at-bats with a southpaw on the hill, which should play into the hands of a strikeout artist like Heaney.

The Angels have also endured their fair share of struggles versus left-handed pitching, as they own baseball’s second-worst batting average (.223) and third-worst on-base percentage (.296) in that department. Oh, and they’re without the best player in the world right now, as Mike Trout currently resides on the 10-day disabled list.

Making matters potentially more difficult, the Halos’ best hitters with Trout absent — Justin Upton, Albert Pujols and Kole Calhoun — are a combined 57-for-284 (.201) against lefties.

Of course, San Diego’s veteran southpaw Clayton Richard isn’t among the more reliable names when it comes to under bets, but the key here for him to deliver something useful in this bet is the fact that he’ll be pitching in his home park.

Richard has finished with a better ERA at home than on the road during each of his previous seven years in a Padres uniform, and his eighth season with the club has been no different: his 3.76 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 10 starts at Petco easily tops the 6.28 ERA and 1.46 WHIP he’s posted in his outings away from San Diego.

We’ll be banking on Richard’s home splits to get him by tonight, but for the most part, I project Heaney to lead the way here en route to continuing his breakout. Wait first to see if there’s any movement from 8 to 8.5 on this under, but even if that doesn’t happen, I’ll still be taking this bet at its current line.

Play: UNDER 8/8.5