Predictive PRO models flagged four home run picks with solid edges Saturday, all in the evening window.
Using our proprietary home run projections—which leverage advanced betting data, player metrics, and market odds comparisons—we’ve identified the best MLB home run bets for Saturday night’s slate.
With every team in action, we’ve honed in on four standout picks across three intriguing games: Astros vs. Rangers, Athletics vs. Giants, and Angels vs. Dodgers. Notably, the impact of wind is a key factor in two of these contests, potentially boosting power numbers and altering typical ballpark dynamics.
Our selections feature hitters priced at +525, +550, +625, and +800, all supported by our data-driven models aiming to find true value.
Let’s dive into the picks and the best available odds for home runs tonight.
Saturday Night MLB Picks: Home Run Parlay Using Advanced Models
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Evan Carter (Rangers)
Odds: +800
PRO Projection: 0.16
Edge: +3.7%
First up is Rangers outfielder Evan Carter, available at +800 on FanDuel. While Globe Life Field is not traditionally known as a home run haven, Carter’s power upside is undervalued in the market, making him our top candidate for a long ball in this matchup. We project for 0.16 homers, which, at +800, marks a good bet.
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Logan O’Hoppe (Angels)
Odds: +550
PRO Projection: 0.21
Edge: +3.6%
Another pick to click is Angels catcher Logan O’Hoppe. Facing the Dodgers, who typically benefit from warm air and a homer-friendly park, with a steady 6 mph wind pushing balls out, O’Hoppe is the top bet in the crosstown rivalry. Our PRO model estimates his HR probability at 0.21, making this an attractive wager at +550 (bet365.)
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Brent Rooker (A’s)
Odds: +525
PRO Projection: 0.23
Edge: +4.5%
Next, Brent Rooker of the Athletics emerges as our second-best bet overall, listed at +525. Despite playing in Oracle Park—a venue generally tougher for hitters—16 mph winds blowing out could turn it into a more hitter-friendly environment. Our model assigns Rooker a 23% (0.23) home run probability, translating to a significant +4.5% betting edge.
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Shea Langeliers (A’s)
Odds: +625
PRO Projection: 0.19
Edge: +3.5%
Finally, catcher Shea Langeliers is also a strong pick in the same game, at +625 on Bet365. Langeliers has already slammed eight homers this season, showcasing consistent power. Pairing his performance with the same wind-aided conditions makes him a compelling prop bet in this game.
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.