Brandon Lowe homered (+575) and Shohei Ohtani doubled (+370) last night, making for a fun night betting PRO Projections.
We’re running it back Saturday with a couple of home run picks from our predictive models.
This system identifies value bets by evaluating player home run probabilities against available betting odds, helping us find the best opportunities.
Today’s best bets for home runs are priced at +625 and +870. Games start at 4:05 p.m. ET and 8:10 p.m. ET, offering prime windows to target power hitters priced attractively.
Let’s get hot this weekend.
MLB Odds: Today’s Home Run Predictions, Props
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Lawrence Butler (Athletics)
Odds: +625
PRO Projection: 0.21
Edge: +5.2%
Our first pick is Lawrence Butler of the Oakland Athletics, who is set to face the New York Yankees. Butler recently dropped in the batting order, which might work in his favor by reducing pressure and providing a fresh spark. Saturday’s matchup features a high game total of 10 runs in a hitter-friendly venue, creating ideal conditions for home runs. At +625 odds on BetMGM, Butler shows a PRO Projection home run probability of 21%, which translates to a solid 5.1% edge over the market.
Home Run Pick for Saturday: Josh Naylor (Diamondbacks)
Odds: +870
PRO Projection: 0.17
Edge: +5.3%
Next up is Josh Naylor from the Arizona Diamondbacks, who will take the plate against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Naylor offers the best edge among our picks tonight, with a 21% projected chance to go yard and a 5.2% advantage compared to current betting lines. Available at +870 odds on FanDuel, Naylor represents an attractive home run bet at the price point.
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high-grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.