Action PRO home run models were spot on last night, accurately predicting two home run picks in the Angels vs. Astros game.
Meanwhile tonight’s game loaded with home run potential, according to PRO data, is Nationals vs. Dodgers.
Below, I’m profiling three home run picks in depth for Saturday night’s MLB clash, with first pitch at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Last night, the big hint to the best picks for Astros-Angels was a big boost to right-handed hitters. Lo and behold, Jeremy Peña (+750) and Isaac Paredes (+540) both homered, back-to-back, in the first inning to start the game.
Here are three value picks bettors should consider for tonight’s potential home run fest, with another intriguing hint on the best bets for Nats-Dodgers.
MLB Home Run Picks Tonight: Best Predictions for Nationals vs Dodgers
Tonight’s spoiler is this: Our home run projections remain super low on Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin May.
This was evident a couple weeks ago versus the Mets. Action PRO models signaled a bunch of home run edges, and Francisco Lindor sent one out of the park in the first at-bat of the game.
May hasn’t allowed a home run in back-to-back starts, potentially setting the stage for a Nats breakout.
Our projections signal value on a ton of hitters on Washington’s roster. Three in particular are worth considering, at the price point.
Batters for the Nationals hitting from the left side get a significant boost adjusting from Nationals Park to Dodger Stadium. This year, Dodger Stadium is the fourth-best home run park for left-handed hitters; Nationals Park is just No. 16.
All three best bets are priced at BetMGM.
First up is Nationals second baseman Luis Garcia Jr at +725. He only has six homers this year, but provides a positive edge (+4.4%) against market expectations. PRO Projections tab Garcia, a left-handed hitter, for 0.18 homers, or a fair price closer to +455.
Second up is Washington’s switch-hitting catcher Keibert Ruiz — who rested Friday — at +1050. Action PRO models predict a solid output (0.13 HRs) and Ruiz is certainly attractive at odds longer than 10-1.
Finally, consider Nationals outfielder Daylen Lile, at +1150. PRO gave a noteworthy bump to Lile’s home run total for tonight, at 0.12.
Several other Nationals received excellent grades from Action’s home run data, including CJ Abrams (+600) and James Wood (+475).
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