With 13 games in action Friday night, there’s plenty of betting value across the MLB odds board.
In fact, we have MLB odds and picks, including our “Payoff Pitch” podcast best bets for Friday, August 16.
Dive in below now!
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | 6:40 p.m. | Reds F5 ML and Game ML |
| [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Cincinnati Reds” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/teammatchup] | 6:40 p.m. | Reds Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases |
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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Reds F5 ML, Full-Game ML vs. Royals” subtext=”6:40 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/subheader]
By Sean Zerillo
I think Nick Martinez continues to be undervalued in betting markets.
After going overseas, he came back and worked out of the bullpen for the Padres last year, pitching well enough to get into the starting rotation. He added a slider into the mix — which grades out really well — and he has a very low walk rate of about 2.7%.
We’ve seen elite command as he’s throwing the ball in the zone 52% of the time, which is also a career-high mark. He has a 2.9 xERA and is proving himself to be a No. 2 starter.
The Reds are playing their best baseball of the season down the stretch after sweeping the Cardinals at home.
Offensively, the Reds are locked in right now. Michael Lorenzen takes the bump for the Royals, and he’s a replacement level starter with a 4.75 xERA. We have constantly mentioned the Royals‘ home-road splits and how drastically different those numbers are on the road.
The Reds have the better bullpen and are first in pitching+ this year.
I like this bet up to about -155 for the first five and -135 for the full game.
Pick: Reds F5 ML & Full-Game ML
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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Reds’ Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases vs. Royals” subtext=”6:40 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-cincinnati-reds.png”][/subheader]
Sean talked about how bad Lorenzen’s two main pitches are, and they happen to be Elly De La Cruz’s best pitches to hit (four-seam fastball, sinker).
We discussed the negative regression of Lorenzen, who’s been giving up the worst barrel rate of his career and his worst home run rate of 1.4 homers per nine innings.
De La Cruz is a switch hitter, but his numbers are very lopsided towards lefties. This is a great matchup for De La Cruz against Lorenzen, who doesn’t get many strikeouts.
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