I’ve got my eye on two home run hitters, priced at +630 and +875, for MLB Friday.
We’ve got a full slate of MLB action and edges aplenty tonight. Friday’s best home run picks are hefty edges from our PRO homer projections — our proprietary home run model that leverages intricate analysis, player data, park factors and odds comparisons to uncover top value plays.
Let’s dive into two under-the-radar home run picks for the night, highlighting strong prices to lock in across a pair of games.
MLB Odds: Home Run Models Best Bets and Picks for 6/6
Fun fact: I’ve been monitoring (and betting) home run projections every single day this season.
For context, the first pick I’m betting is a hitter who frequently makes the rounds as a projection edge in the home run department — when the price and matchup are there.
The pick may not jump off the page, but I’ve watched PRO Projections successfully call out a home run from this particular player in key spots; why not run it back?
The hot ticket is Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros, taking on the Cleveland Guardians. Altuve isn’t typically known for his power, but his swing mechanics are excellent, making him an intriguing option at attractive odds.
He’s currently priced at +875 at BetMGM, with some books offering as low as +680.
Facing lefty Logan Allen, Altuve carries nine home runs on the season and a PRO Projection of 0.16 homers in this matchup. Our model identifies a +3.7% edge here, signaling good value on the board.
PRO Home Run Pick: Jose Altuve (+875)
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The second pick is Royce Lewis of the Minnesota Twins, going up against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Target Field isn’t known for boosting home run totals, but the weather’s warming up and the price is too good to pass up.
He’s currently available at +630 odds (FanDuel) and strikes our PRO model as the second-best home run candidate of the entire day.
PRO Home Run Pick: Royce Lewis (+630)
[quickslipbasic bookname=”FanDuel” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/53766_FanDuel@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/06/IMG_2551.jpeg” buttontext=”Instantly Bet Lewis to Homer!” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/fanduel/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1613948550&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.