The hot streak continues, with six straight wins bringing us back into the black for the first time in 2025.
We have a much bigger slate on Friday, but I’ve pared it down to my top three picks after going through all of the options.
Let’s dive into my MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Friday, April 4.
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MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions — 4/4
White Sox vs. Tigers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”NRFI -129 (Play to -145)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png” awayname=”White Sox” awayslug=”chicago-white-sox” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/det.png” homename=”Tigers” homeslug=”Detroit Tigers” date=”Friday, April 4 1:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”Caesars” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
Starting Pitchers: Jack Flaherty vs. Jonathan Cannon
This game is a similar situation to the Phillies–Rockies NRFI we hit earlier in the week, in that one team is projecting with such a low chance of scoring a first inning run that the other team can’t possibly overcome it.
The team with the minimal projection is, of course, the White Sox, who don’t have a single hitter in their first three (or anywhere else in the lineup) who finished 2024 with an above average wRC+. They’re projected for just 2.75 runs on the day against Flaherty, who had a sub-3.00 ERA his first time through the order last year.
Where this game differs from Phillies-Rockies is that Detroit isn’t especially live to score a first-inning run, as Jonathan Cannon also had strong first time through the order splits and the top of the Tigers‘ lineup isn’t particularly threatening. For that reason, I’m personally not hedging with the Tigers’ single team YRFI (+270 at DraftKings), though it’s not a terrible option.
Make sure to check the “Innings” tab at Caesars, where “0 first inning runs” is still -129, instead of the “Popular” tab where the NRFI is -145.
Cardinals vs. Red Sox NRFI/YRFI Prediction
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”YRFI -115 (Play to -125)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/stl.png” awayname=”Cardinals” awayslug=”sat-louis-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bos.png” homename=”Red Sox” homeslug=”Boston Red Sox” date=”Friday, April 4 2:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde vs. Walker Buehler
Walker Buehler has been borderline awful since returning from an injury that kept him out of the 2023 campaign. He finished last season with a 5.38 ERA that jumped to 6.21 in his first time through the order. This season, Buehler has picked up right where he left off, giving up four runs in his first start — including two in the first inning.
On the other side, Erick Fedde is a solid arm with relatively standard splits, but not one that we’re going to make a point to avoid — especially in a game with a nine run total, relatively friendly hitting weather and the second best park for bats in the MLB.
BetMGM has the best line at -115, but it’s widely available at -120.
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Yankees vs. Pirates NRFI/YRFI Prediction
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”YRFI +100 (Play to -105)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyy.png” awayname=”Yankees” awayslug=”new-york-yankees” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” homename=”pirates” homeslug=”Pittsburgh-Pirates” date=”Friday, April 4 4:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Mitch Keller
The way the top of the Yankees‘ lineup is hitting means an even money or better YRFI is almost an auto-bet for the time being.
Aaron Judge is obviously the headliner, but they’re an incredibly strong group overall, especially counting cleanup hitter Jazz Chisholm. The Yankees are facing Mitch Keller, who had an ERA slightly over 4.00 over the past two seasons, with below average early game/overall splits.
The Pirates aren’t totally uninvolved in the value here either. They’re also a top heavy lineup taking on a pitcher with below-average early game splits (though better overall numbers).
Another sneaky factor is that PNC Park is actually somewhat more hitter friendly than Yankee Stadium overall, despite being tougher for home runs.
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