We could’ve had a big day on Sunday.
The first two picks hit, and we got to two outs in the bottom of the first without a run in the Padres-Blue Jays game before a George Springer fielding error allowed a run to score. Since the model doesn’t try to project team defense (outside of what’s baked into the game total), those things will happen sometimes. They’ll work out for us as much as against us, but it’s still frustrating.
It’s a new week, and we’re back with three more picks on Monday.
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/03/GettyImages-2036207063.jpg” linktext=”What is NRFI/YRFI Betting in MLB? | Introducing 2024 Model for Popular Baseball Prop” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/mlb-nrfi-yrfi-betting-explained-baseball-props-2024″][/relatedarticle]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”NRFI -105 (Bet to -115)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/phi.png” awayname=”Phillies” awayslug=”philadelphia-phillies” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cin.png” homename=”Reds” homeslug=”cincinnati-reds” date=”Monday, April 22″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN+” bookname=”BetRivers” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez vs. Hunter Greene
This game has a reasonably high total compared to what I typically target for NRFIs. However, it also features two pitchers who fit the exact archetype of what we’re looking for.
Greene and Suarez’s xFIP numbers are below 2.50 their first time through the order, as they typically allow more scoring later in games, making this a strong bet at low juice.
_InlineAdBlock
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”NRFI -139 (Bet to -150)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/461059_det_n.png” awayname=”Tigers” awayslug=”detroit-tigers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tb.png” homename=”Rays” homeslug=”tampa-bay-rays” date=”Monday, Apr 22″ time=”6:50pm ET” network=”BSSUN” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Starting Pitchers: Tarik Skubal vs. Zack Littell
At most sportsbooks, Skubal is the front-runner to be the AL Cy Young winner, and the Tigers’ offense is one of the league’s worst. That’s enough to be interested in this NRFI, even at the price.
It gets even better when we consider Littell’s splits. He is a former reliever/opener who has a 2.79 xFIP his first time through the order this season.
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”YRFI -120 (Bet to -130)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” awayname=”Padres” awayslug=”san-diego-padres” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/col.png” homename=”Rockies” homeslug=”colorado-rockies” date=”Monday, April 22″ time=”8:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.tv” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Starting Pitchers: Dylan Cease vs. Austin Gomber
I can’t help myself on these Coors Field YRFIs, especially when the games keep coming in at double-digit totals. They didn’t treat us well over the weekend when Colorado hosted the Mariners, but now the Padres are in town.
San Diego is a considerably better offensive team than Seattle, and we aren’t exactly scared of Austin Gomber and his 4.95 ERA this season.
_InlineAdBlock