MLB NRFI Bets Today | Saturday Model Predictions

I hit both of my MLB NRFI bets on Friday to bring the total return for the week to just over a unit of profit. Let’s keep that rolling into Saturday.

I have three more MLB NRFI/YRFI model picks and predictions for Saturday, August 3.

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MLB NRFI Bets Today | Saturday Model Predictions

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”YRFI -110 (Play to -115)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” awayname=”Blue Jays” awayslug=”toronto-blue-jays” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyy.png” homename=”Yankees” homeslug=”new-york-yankees” date=”Saturday, August 3″ time=”1:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”Caesars” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs. Carlos Rodon

We cashed this one easily yesterday, with five total runs being scored in the first inning.

I’d be happy with just one today, as the projection isn’t quite as strong — though we’re also getting a better price, at least at Caesars.

A lot of the value is driven by some potential regression on Jose Berrios. He has a 3.93 ERA, but 5.26 xERA overall on the season. His first time through the order splits aren’t especially stark, but he could struggle in every inning against the Yankees.

Toronto also has a solid top of the order, as we saw yesterday. Yankees starter Carlos Rodon has a 4.75 ERA his first time through the order, so not exactly a tough matchup either.

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[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”YRFI -105 (Play to -110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” awayname=”Diamondbacks” awayslug=”arizona-diamondbacks” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” homename=”Pirates” homeslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” date=”Saturday, August 3″ time=”6:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”Caesars” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

Starting Pitchers: Jordan Montgomery vs. Mitch Keller

This is another pick I’m interested in partially because of an off-market line at Caesars, which is the only book where I’d currently play it.

There’s other factors though, like Diamondbacks lefty Jordan Montgomery’s 4.75 first time through the order ERA, and the Pirates significantly better splits against southpaws.

On the other side, Mith Keller has a first time through the order xFIP over 4.00 (but an ERA below 2.00) which suggests he’s due for some considerable regression. I’m more inclined to bet on regression with a smaller sample size stat like first time through the order runs allowed, where some good (or bad) luck can be more impactful.

[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/08/ketel-marte-24.jpg” linktext=”MLB Best Bets | Moneyline Picks & Predictions (8/3)” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/mlb-best-bets-today-picks-predictions-saturday-august-3″][/relatedarticle]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Reds Team-Specific YRFI +230 (Play to +205)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” awayname=”Giants” awayslug=”san-francisco-giants” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cin.png” homename=”Reds” homeslug=”cincinnati-reds” date=”Saturday, August 3″ time=”7:15 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

Starting Pitchers: Kyle Harrison vs. Hunter Greene

My model is actually showing some slight value on the full game YRFI here, which is as high as +108 on FanDuel.

However, the Giants are on the wrong side of their platoon splits by a considerable amount, and are facing Hunter Greene. Greene has pitched himself into a borderline Cy Young candidate, with a sub-3.00 ERA and excellent first time through the order stats.

The Giants’ Kyle Harrison has a 4.29 overall xFIP and a 4.30 first time through the order mark. While the Reds are on the wrong side of their platoon splits overall against the lefty, three of their first four hitters have a stronger wOBA against southpaws.

Plus, we have a top-five Park for offense and solid hitting weather, so it’s worth risking a half-unit for a big payout.

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