For Wednesday, August 6, I’m on 4 MLB home run props: Spencer Torkleson, Pete Alonso, Juan Soto and Ketel Marte.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Wednesday.
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MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Wednesday, August 6
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 1:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Detroit Tigers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/det.png” text=”Spencer Torkelson Home Run (+475)”][/teammatchup] |
| 1:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” text=”Juan Soto Home Run (+400)”][/teammatchup] |
| 1:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” text=”Pete Alonso Home Run (+375)”][/teammatchup] |
| 9:40 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” text=”Ketel Marte Home Run (+350)”][/teammatchup] |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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MLB Home Run Picks for August 6
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Spencer Torkelson (+475)” subtext=”vs Twins (SP: RHP Pierson Ohl)” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/det.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
We don’t have much of a sample size of Pierson Ohl in the majors, but all projection systems have him projected as a plus matchup for power. Also, the weather in Detroit is a plus for hitting today with WeatherEdge giving an 11% increase to homers. Spencer Torkelson is a great power bat and I have the true odds of him homering today at +400, making this a great EV bet.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Juan Soto (+400)” subtext=”vs Guardians (SP: RHP Gavin Williams)” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
The weather in New York should be slightly above average for power, with WeatherEdge giving it a 7% increase to homers. Also, opposing pitcher Gavin Williams is right around an average matchup for lefty power. Soto is just far too good of a power bat to be priced at +400 in an average spot, making this a great bet.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Pete Alonso (+375)” subtext=”vs Guardians (SP: RHP Gavin Williams)” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nym.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
This is strictly a price play. The weather should be a slight plus for homers — with WeatherEdge giving this game a 7% increase to homers — and the matchup vs. Gavin Williams is around average for righty power. Alonso has been on a tear recently, with three homers in his past four games. He’s far too good of a power hitter to be priced like this in an average matchup.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Ketel Marte (+350)” subtext=”vs Padres (SP: LHP Nestor Cortes)” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
I’m backing a few of the Diamondbacks’ power righties going up against Nestor Cortes, who has been a big plus matchup in his career for righty power, giving up a high 1.53 HR/9. Additionally, in a small sample size this season, he’s been absolutely hammered by righties, giving up close to a 60% hard-contact rate and fly-ball rate. While he’s likely going to figure things out at some point, given that he’s already a plus matchup for righty power, this is a great spot. I have the true odds here at under +300, making this a great bet.
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