I’m back with more MLB home run props for the Tuesday, April 1st, slate, which features 13 games on the docket.
I’ve found home run value on five sluggers tonight, including Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kyle Tucker, Oneil Cruz, Matt Chapman and Brandon Lowe. I’ve also made an MLB home run parlay featuring three of those hitters (Lowe, Chapman and Tucker).
You can find my Tuesday MLB home run picks and four write-ups below.
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MLB Home Run Props for Tuesday, April 1
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:05 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” text=”Oneil Cruz Home Run (+420)”][/teammatchup] |
| 7:07 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” text=”Brandon Lowe Home Run (+440)”][/teammatchup] |
| 7:07 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” text=”Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+550)”][/teammatchup] |
| 8:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#4″ firstfullname=”San Francisco Giants” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” text=”Matt Chapman Home Run (+420)”][/teammatchup] |
| 8:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#5″ firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” text=”Kyle Tucker Home Run (+420)”][/teammatchup] |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Pirates vs. Rays Home Run Pick: Oneil Cruz” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” homename=”Tampa Bay Rays” homeslug=”tampa-bay-rays” date=”Tuesday, April 1″ time=”7:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Oneil Cruz Home Run (+420)” subtext=”Home Run (+420)” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Oneil Cruz is in a great spot, and the odds don’t reflect it.
Tampa Bay’s stadium this season mirrors Yankee Stadium, which is great for lefty power. There is good hitting weather, with 83-degree temperatures and 60% humidity, which is about as good as you can find at this point in the season.
The matchup is average going up against Shane Baz, who is close to a splits-neutral pitcher, but has been a slightly above-average matchup for lefty power in his career.
I have the true odds under +400, making this a good bet.
Pick: Oneil Cruz Home Run (+420)
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[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Pirates vs. Rays HR Pick: Brandon Lowe” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” homename=”Tampa Bay Rays” homeslug=”tampa-bay-rays” date=”Tuesday, April 1″ time=”7:07 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Brandon Lowe Home Run (+440)” subtext=”Home Run (+440)” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Brandon Lowe is in a great spot given the weather and matchup.
Thomas Harrington is making his first career start and grades out as an above-average matchup for lefty power. The ballpark the Rays are playing in is a fantastic hitting ballpark for lefty power, and the weather is going to be humid with temps in the mid-80s.
Lowe isn’t a massive power guy, but he can still hit 30+ HRs in a full season.
I have the true odds under +400, making this a great bet.
Pick: Brandon Lowe Home Run (+440)
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[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Nationals vs. Blue Jays Home Run Pick: Vlad Jr.” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” awayname=”Washington Nationals” awayslug=”washington-nationals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” homename=”Toronto Blue Jays” homeslug=”toronto-blue-jays” date=”Tuesday, April 1″ time=”7:07 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+550)” subtext=”Home Run (+550)” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
This matchup is great, and these odds really don’t reflect it. Even if we assume that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is just a 30-HR hitter with no upside, these odds are far off.
Vlad gets a matchup vs. Trevor Williams, who is due for some massive regression from last season. He only gave up three HRs in 66 innings despite being a fly-ball pitcher. In 2023, he was absolutely torched by righties, allowing 2.57 HR/9.
While I don’t expect him to regress to that extent, he grades out as an above-average matchup for righty power.
I have the true odds at around +425, making this a great bet.
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+550)
[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Giants vs. Astros Home Run Prop: Matt Chapman” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” awayname=”San Francisco Giants” awayslug=”san-francisco-giants” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” homename=”Houston Astros” homeslug=”houston-astros” date=”Tuesday, April 1″ time=”8:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Matt Chapman Home Run (+420)” subtext=”Home Run (+420)” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
I’ve been picking Chapman to hit a HR a lot this season; he’s in another good spot here, so I’m going right back to the well.
Playing in a dome, we don’t have any weather concerns, and the matchup is good.
Hayden Wesneski has been a great matchup for righty power in his career, giving up 1.51 HR/9 to go along with heavy fly-ball numbers.
I have the true odds at around +350, making this a good bet.