I’ve been hot with homer picks to the hit the season, cashing on Oneil Cruz, Heliot Ramos and Kyle Schwarber on consecutive days, and I’m back with more MLB home run props and picks for Monday, March 31.
My six favorite home run prop bets for Monday include Bobby Witt Jr. against the Brewers, Anthony Santander against the Nationals and Kyle Tucker against the Athletics, plus Yordan Alvarez, Matt Chapman and Heliot Ramos in the Giants–Astros game.
As always, I believe there’s value on each of these players to homer, and I’ve also grouped three of them into a long-shot home run parlay.
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MLB Home Run Prop Bets, Picks — Monday, March 31
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 4:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” text=”Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (+425)”][/teammatchup] |
| 7:07 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Toronto Blue Jays” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” text=”Anthony Santander Home Run (+420)”][/teammatchup] |
| 8:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Houston Astros” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” text=”Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+390)”][/teammatchup] |
| 8:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#4″ firstfullname=”San Francisco Giants” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” text=”Heliot Ramos Home Run (+600)”][/teammatchup] |
| 8:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#5″ firstfullname=”San Francisco Giants” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” text=”Matt Chapman Home Run (+480)”][/teammatchup] |
| 10:05 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#6″ firstfullname=”Chicago Cubs” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” text=”Kyle Tucker Home Run (+420)”][/teammatchup] |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/527348_ProWeekly1500x8441.jpg” cta=”7 Days of PRO Betting Tools” firstupsell=”Track sharp CBB & MLB money” secondupsell=”Player prop & home run projections” thirdupsell=”PRO systems, premium articles & more!” buttontext=”TRY PRO NOW” buttonurl=”/pricing”][/procard]
[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Royals vs. Brewers MLB Player Prop: Bobby Witt Home Runs” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” awayname=”Kansas City Royals” awayslug=”kansas-city-royals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” homename=”Milwaukee Brewers” homeslug=”milwaukee-brewers” date=”Monday, March 31″ time=”4:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Bobby Witt Jr.” subtext=”Home Run (+425)” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/542724_Fanatics-banner-logo.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
We don’t have a big sample size of Elvin Rodriguez in the majors, but in the small 33-inning sample size, he has already given up 12 HRs. He grades out as an above-average matchup for power, and with today’s game in a dome, we don’t have to worry about weather conditions.
Witt is a good HR hitter, with 32 last season and 30 the season before. And looking at his underlying numbers, he’s likely due for some positive regression.
I have the true odds around +350, making this a great bet.
Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (+425)
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[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Nationals vs. Blue Jays MLB Player Prop: Value on Santander” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-washington-nationals.png” awayname=”Washington Nationals” awayslug=”washington-nationals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” homename=”Toronto Blue Jays” homeslug=”toronto-blue-jays” date=”Monday, March 31″ time=”7:07 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Anthony Santander” subtext=”Home Run (+420)” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/tor.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Santander is coming off a massive year for HRs — now he’s on a new team and in a great spot.
Michael Soroka gave up 1.42 HR/9 last season and with this game being played in a dome, we don’t have to worry about weather.
I have the true odds here for Santander around +350.
Pick: Anthony Santander Home Run (+420)
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Giants vs. Astros MLB Player Prop: Yordan Due?” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” awayname=”San Francisco Giants” awayslug=”san-francisco-giants” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” homename=”Houston Astros” homeslug=”houston-astros” date=”Monday, March 31″ time=”8:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Yordan Alvarez” subtext=”Home Run (+390)” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
This is strictly a price play.
Jordan Hicks is a decent pitcher who grades out as an average matchup for lefty power. He allowed 0.98 HR/9 last season, but given that he pitched in a pitcher-friendly park, that number should be higher.
Alvarez is one of the best power hitters in the league and is likely going to get to 50 HRs in a season at some point in his career.
This game is being played in the dome in Houston, so we don’t have to worry about weather, and I have the true odds here close to +300.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+390)
[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Giants vs. Astros MLB Player Prop: Heliot a Sneaky HR Play” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” awayname=”San Francisco Giants” awayslug=”san-francisco-giants” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” homename=”Houston Astros” homeslug=”houston-astros” date=”Monday, March 31″ time=”8:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Heliot Ramos” subtext=”Home Run (+600)” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
I’ve already talked about how much power Ramos has, and he gets a massive ballpark upgrade here going to Houston.
Ramos gets a slightly above-average matchup vs. Ronel Blanco; I have the true odds below +500, making this a great bet.
Pick: Heliot Ramos Home Run (+600)
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[anchor name=”5″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Giants vs. Astros MLB Player Prop: Good Spot to Back Chapman” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” awayname=”San Francisco Giants” awayslug=”san-francisco-giants” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” homename=”Houston Astros” homeslug=”houston-astros” date=”Monday, March 31″ time=”8:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Matt Chapman” subtext=”Home Run (+480)” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-san-francisco-giants.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Chapman hasn’t been the same hitter we saw years ago, but I think he’s due for a great season and he’s in a decent spot here.
Blanco had a great season last year, but has been a 1.28 HR/9 pitcher vs. righties in his career and grades out as an above-average matchup for righty power.
Chapman only had 27 HRs last season, but that was playing in one of the worst parks in the league for power and he grades out as a mid-30s HR hitter in a normal ballpark.
I have the true odds here for Chapman just under +400 today.
Pick: Matt Chapman Home Run (+480)
[anchor name=”6″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Cubs vs. Athletics MLB Player Prop: Value on Kyle Tucker” center=”false”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” awayname=”Chicago Cubs” awayslug=”chicago-cubs” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/oakd.png” homename=”Oakland Athletics” homeslug=”oakland-athletics” date=”Monday, March 31″ time=”10:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Kyle Tucker” subtext=”Home Run (+420)” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanduel” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
I don’t love the weather in this spot, but the odds here are too good all other things considered.
It’s not going to be terribly warm over in Sacramento, but this ballpark is a good one from hitting from all early indications. Although we don’t know the effect that wind will have in this stadium, it is blowing out at 14 mph.
The matchup vs. Joey Estes is a great one for lefty power. We don’t have a big sample size on Estes in the majors, but he has been crushed by lefties, giving up a massive 1.94 HR/9 in 65 innings.
Tucker was having a massive season last year prior to getting injured and he’s started right where he left off with 2 HRs in six games.
I have the true odds around +340.