On Opening Day, I went 1-for-3 on my MLB home run props, cashing the Giants’ Heliot Ramos against the Reds. And I’m back with more MLB home run prop bets for Friday, with picks for Pete Alonso, Yordan Alvarez, Oneil Cruz and Triston Casas.
I believe those four sluggers have value in the home run market for Friday night, and I’ve also grouped three of my favorite homer picks into a +17225 parlay.
Find all my MLB home run prop bets and analysis for Friday, March 28, below.
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MLB Home Run Props, Friday Picks
In the table below, you’ll find each of my MLB home run prop picks for Friday. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” text=”Oneil Cruz Home Run (+425)”][/teammatchup] |
| 8:05 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Boston Red Sox” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” text=”Triston Casas Home Run (+500)”][/teammatchup] |
| 8:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Houston Astros” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” text=”Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+370)”][/teammatchup] |
| 8:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#4″ firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” text=”Pete Alonso Home Run (+450)”][/teammatchup] |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Pirates vs. Marlins” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” awayname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” awayslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” homename=”Miami Marlins” homeslug=”miami-marlins” date=”Friday, March 28″ time=”7:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Oneil Cruz” subtext=”Home Run (+425)” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/542724_Fanatics-banner-logo.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Oneil Cruz has some of the best power numbers in the league, he just needs to put things all together, which I think he will this season.
We don’t have a huge sample size of Marlins starter Connor Gillispie in the majors, but he grades out as a well-above-average matchup for power with slightly below average splits.
I have the true odds for a Cruz homer under +400 in this spot, making this a good EV bet.
Pick: Oneil Cruz Home Run (+425)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Red Sox vs. Rangers” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” awayname=”Boston Red Sox” awayslug=”boston-red-sox” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-texas-rangers.png” homename=”Texas Rangers” homeslug=”texas-rangers” date=”Friday, March 28″ time=”8:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Triston Casas” subtext=”Home Run (+500)” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-boston-red-sox.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/542724_Fanatics-banner-logo.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Triston Casas hasn’t been around long, but when he’s played, he’s shown decent pop with 42 HRs in 223 career games.
Casas gets an above-average matchup against Rangers starter Jack Leiter, who grades as a pitcher who gives up a ton of lefty power.
I have the true odds on Casas here just above +400.
Pick: Triston Casas Home Run (+500)
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[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mets vs. Astros” center=”true”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” awayname=”New York Mets” awayslug=”new-york-mets” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” homename=”Houston Astros” homeslug=”houston-astros” date=”Friday, March 28″ time=”8:10 p.m. ET” network=”Apple TV+”][/gameheader]
[subheader text=”Yordan Alvarez” subtext=”Home Run (+370)” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/hou.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
Last year in the limited sample size we had for Mets starter Tylor Megill, he was good at suppressing bombs, but I don’t trust the small sample size considering his 41% fly-ball rate and 35% hard-contact rate.
He’s given up a 1.64 HR/9 to lefties over the course of his career and his fly ball and hard numbers are consistent year to year.
Yordan Alvarez is one of the best HR hitters in the league and is playing in a dome today so we don’t have to worry about weather in this spot.
I have this as a +300 bet here, making this a great EV bet at +370.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+370)
[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/03/tylor-megill.jpg” linktext=”Mets vs Astros Prediction, Picks, Odds (Friday, March 28)” link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/new-york-mets-vs-houston-astros-prediction-picks-odds-friday-march-28-qs”][/relatedarticle]
[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]
[subheader text=”Pete Alonso” subtext=”Home Run (+450)” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/542724_Fanatics-banner-logo.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/fanatics-sportsbook” trailinglinkfollow=”false”][/subheader]
It looks like the books still don’t know how to properly price Pete Alonso this year, and we are getting great odds on him today.
Astros starter Hunter Brown was slightly above average at suppressing HRs last season, but if we look at his overall career numbers, he’s an above-average matchup for righty power with a 1.36 HR/9.
I have the true odds just under +400, making this a great EV bet.