For Friday, July 18, I’m on three MLB home run props: Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, and Cal Raleigh.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets for Friday.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/07/IMG_6414.jpg” buttontext=”Parlay These 3 Picks Instantly!” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1690613768&deeplinkId[1]=ML1690652627&deeplinkId[2]=ML1690604872&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Editor’s Note: A parlay is not the author’s formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Friday, July 18
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:45 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Angels” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” text=”Mike Trout to Hit a Home Run (+360)”][/teammatchup] |
| 7:15 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New York Yankees” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” text=”Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+260)”][/teammatchup] |
| 10:10 p.m. | [teammatchup shadow=”false” link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Seattle Mariners” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” text=”Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+275)”][/teammatchup] |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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MLB Home Run Picks for Friday, July 18
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Mike Trout to Hit a Home Run (+360)” subtext=”Angels vs Phillies, 6:45 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/laa.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Going hard on the Angels‘ righties today.
Opposing pitcher Jesus Luzardo has been a negative matchup for righty power this season, but he’s due for some negative regression and has historically been a plus-matchup.
The weather shouldn’t be bad for hitting, with temps in the low-80s and decent humidity.
Mike Trout is having a solid season, with 17 home runs in 70 games, and +400 is far too high given the matchup.
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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+260)” subtext=”Yankees vs Braves, 7:15 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/nyyd.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
I get that Aaron Judge has a tough matchup against Spencer Strider and the Braves today, but the odds here are far too high for a hitter with as much power as Judge.
Strider has been a slightly below average matchup for righty power, but not nearly enough to justify the price here.
I have Judge’s true odds around +240 in this spot, making this a good EV bet.
[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Cal Raleigh to Hit a Home Run (+275)” subtext=”Astros vs Mariners, 10:10 p.m. ET” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-seattle-mariners.png” link1=”” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” trailinglink=”” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
I have no idea why the books are pricing Cal Raleigh so high today, but I’m going to take advantage.
Raleigh has absolutely crushed left handed pitching this season, with 16 bombs in 104 ABs.
Opposing pitcher Brandon Walter is due for some positive regression against righties, but he’s still allowed a massive 1.87 HR/9 on the season.
I have the true odds here around +200, making this another great bet.
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