I don’t love attacking strikeout props early in the season because we have nothing to go off of for starting pitchers. I may hold off on betting on those until next week after we see each starter once.
The props worth looking into right away, though, are home run props.
Home run props will typically sharpen as the season goes on. For now, there are some edges to take advantage of, including my favorite Friday pick, which I’m putting 0.2 units on.
[quickslipbasic bookname=”DraftKings” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/128508_Primary1.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/03/Screen-Shot-2025-03-28-at-12.46.22-PM.png” buttontext=”Tail Koerner’s Friday HR Prop (Mobile Only)” buttonlink=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v2/deeplink?deeplinkId[0]=ML1412747894&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bryan Reynolds 1+ Home Runs (+650)” subtext=”” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/odds/pittsburgh-pirates” link1follow=”true” logo2url=”” link2=”” link2follow=”true” trailinglogourl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” trailinglink=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/draftkings” trailinglinkfollow=”true”][/subheader]
Bryan Reynolds has the fourth-highest odds to hit a home run today, according to my model, so I did a bit of digging on this one.
Reynolds is a switch hitter who will be batting left-handed today since he’s facing the right-handed Connor Gillispie. He hits HRs at a higher rate as a right-handed hitter mainly because he hits the ball in the air at around a 10% higher rate against lefties.
However, Gillispie has been an extreme flyball pitcher in his eight big-league innings (58%). That would have easily led the league last year. I realize that’s an extremely small sample to go off of, but this flyball trend has been there for Gillispie in his five seasons in the minors. I fully expect him to continue to be a flyball pitcher at the next level.
This will help Reynolds get some lift on the ball in his first few at bats tonight, which should increase his odds of going yard as his HR/FB% has been above average in his career.
While it’s a tougher ballpark for hitters in Miami, it does tend to favor left-handed hitters. Reynolds also does tend to hit a high rate of “no doubter” home runs (46%) 46th out of 148 qualified hitters last season. I’m thinking facing an extreme flyball pitcher here gives him sneaky value, and the fact he’s a switch hitter helps him out even once we get to the bullpen here.
I’m projecting Reynolds as closer to +400 to hit a dong here.
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