I’m crafting a +6410 home run parlay for MLB Monday with the insights provided by PRO Projections.
This advanced data, created by our team of MLB experts, analyzes player probabilities, projections, and more to spot value picks in the betting markets. After hitting a 38-1 parlay Friday, today we’re zeroing in on two batters who, according to our models, show promising potential to knock it out of the park.
These hitters stand out with odds priced at +830 and +625 to hit a home run, respectively. By comparing these odds to our calculated probabilities, we’re able to locate standout betting opportunities.
Today’s games begin at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s explore both picks and the combined parlay.
MLB Home Run Predictions, Parlay for 5/5
Home Run Pick for Monday: TJ Friedl (Reds)
Odds: +830
PRO Projection: 0.24
Edge: +4%
We’re backing TJ Friedl to go yard in the Reds-Braves matchup. With the best odds sitting at +830 on FanDuel, our PRO Projections assign a probability of 0.16, giving us a valuable edge of 4%.
Friedl typically bats leadoff, boosting his chances of getting five at-bats. Although his home stadium is a hitter’s park, Friedl is a great bet away from Great American Ball Park, where we’re likely getting better odds — nine of Friedl’s 14 long balls last year came on the road, and so did his lone this season.
Home Run Pick for Monday: Josh Naylor (Diamondbacks)
Odds: +625
PRO Projection: 0.19
Edge: +3.5%
Our models also like Josh Naylor to homer in the Mets-Diamondbacks game. His best odds are at +625 on BetMGM, and with a PRO Projection probability of 0.19, we secure an edge of 3.5%.
Parlaying both of these picks together results in odds of +6410 at FanDuel.
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.