Let’s get to some home run picks from our predictive models tonight.
Wednesday’s MLB slate offers some intriguing opportunities for bettors looking to capitalize on home run markets, particularly with power hitting set to explode in two favorable ballparks. Leveraging our proprietary PRO Projections — which synthesize expert analysis, player performance data, and market odds — we’ve identified two standout value home run picks at enticingly high prices.
Tonight’s picks are priced +830 and +875.
Here’s who our MLB home run models like to hit a homer for MLB Wednesday.
MLB Home Run Predictions: Projections Best Bets for 6/4
Both predictions represent low-profile players with great leverage based on park factors and advanced projections. For bettors seeking high-value, high-payout home run options on Wednesday’s card, these picks provide compelling edges worth capitalizing on.
Home Run Pick for Wednesday: Spencer Horwitz (Pirates)
Odds: +830
PRO Projection: 0.16
Edge: +3.6%
First up is the Astros vs. Pirates matchup, where Spencer Horwitz of Pittsburgh emerges as an outstanding bet at +830 odds on FanDuel.
Most other sportsbooks have Horwitz priced significantly lower around +600, highlighting the value our projections uncover. According to PRO Projections, Horwitz’s home run probability sits at a solid 0.16, underscoring a high-value wager against the market consensus.
Home Run Pick for Wednesday: Bryson Stott (Phillies)
Odds: +875
PRO Projection: 0.16
Edge: +3.6%
Turning to the Phillies vs. Blue Jays game, Bryson Stott stands out as a top home run candidate at a generous +875 at BetMGM. Rogers Centre ranks as the second-best home run park in the league, creating an ideal environment for tonight’s game. While some sportsbooks offer Stott as low as +560, our PRO Projections peg his home run likelihood at 0.16, indicating nice upside at current odds.
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.