After PRO Projections rolled out home run analysis, odds and grades today, a couple of notable sluggers stand out.
According to our proprietary betting data, today’s analysis identifies two noteworthy edges for home run picks. Today’s games to keep an eye on include the Yankees taking on the Nationals and the Twins squaring off against the Braves.
Our expert projections take into account a multitude of factors such as matchups, park factors and more to determine the best home run hitters to bet on — or fade.
By leveraging our in-depth analysis, we can provide you with valuable insights to navigate today’s betting landscape. Across today’s predictions, there’s a neat twist.
Let’s transition to Wednesday’s best insights for home run picks.
MLB Home Run Picks Wednesday: Two Hitters to Bet
Home Run Pick for Nationals vs. Yankees: Bet Against Aaron Judge
That’s right: We’re fading Aaron Judge tonight.
Judge, the most feared hitter in baseball right now, leads the league in dingers. However, he stands out today not as a candidate to go deep, but as our top pick to not homer.
While Judge has undeniably been on a tear this season, our proprietary projections suggest a different outcome for tonight’s game. We project the slugger for about 0.31 home runs tonight.
However, the odds in the market aren’t in his favor. In fact, betting on Judge to not homer, with the best odds available at -185 on BetMGM, represents a 9.98% edge according to our top pick from the overall projections.
This unique insight offers a valuable opportunity for bettors aiming to capitalize on market inefficiencies.
PRO Projections Edge: Aaron Judge No HR (-185)
Home Run Pick for Braves vs. Twins: Bet Royce Lewis
Shifting our focus to the Twins-Braves matchup, one infielder particularly catches our eye – Royce Lewis.
The former No. 1 overall pick has shown promising potential, and our projections are bullish on his performance tonight. We forecast Lewis to hit approximately 0.23 home runs in his game against the Braves.
This projection translates into a 6% edge when matched up with the best available odds of +625 on BetMGM.
PRO Projections Edge: Royce Lewis HR (+625)
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
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