MLB Home Run Prop Bets, Parlay for Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Teoscar Hernández

What better way to mark the start of baseball season, which features the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs meeting in the Tokyo Series, than an MLB home run parlay?

Both the park factors for the Tokyo Dome and favorable matchups have led me to target Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker and Teoscar Hernández for my Tuesday MLB home run prop bets.

I believe there’s value on each player as straight picks, but if you’re feeling spicy, you can cook up a three-leg home run parlay for Tuesday.

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Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.

MLB Home Run Prop Bets — 3/18

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Shohei Ohtani Home Run Prop Analysis”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+250)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” awayslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” homename=”Chicago Cubs” homeslug=”chicago-cubs” date=”Tuesday, March 18″ time=”6:10 a.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

The matchup overall is slightly above average, but the odds don’t fully reflect that.

While a lefty-lefty matchup isn’t ideal for Shohei Ohtani, it’s worth noting Shota Imanaga gave up a 1.23 HR/9 to lefties last season and regressed heavily in the second half of the season.

Imanaga grades out as closer to a 1.4 HR/9 pitcher to lefties, and this ballpark is a big plus as the Tokyo Dome has shorter dimensions.

I have the true odds for an Ohtani homer around +215.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Kyle Tucker Home Run Prop Analysis”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Kyle Tucker Home Run (+520)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” awayslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” homename=”Chicago Cubs” homeslug=”chicago-cubs” date=”Tuesday, March 18″ time=”6:10 a.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

This isn’t a great matchup, but this is more of a price play than anything.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto grades out as a below-average matchup vs. lefty power, but Kyle Tucker was a fantastic HR hitter last season. Prior to getting injured last season, Tucker was on a massive HR tear, hitting 19 HRs in 60 games, which equates to over 50 HRs over 162 games.

The ballpark here is an overall plus for HRs with the field being much smaller than a normal MLB park and the pressurized dome giving a boost to power. I have the true odds here around +450, making this a great EV bet.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Teoscar Hernández Home Run Prop Analysis”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Teoscar Hernández Home Run (+390)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” awayslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-chicago-cubs.png” homename=”Chicago Cubs” homeslug=”chicago-cubs” date=”Tuesday, March 18″ time=”6:10 a.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”FanDuel ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

I have the true odds on this around +340.

Teoscar Hernández gets a great matchup vs. Shota Imanaga, who was a good pitcher last season but struggled with home runs. Imanaga owned a 1.45 HR/9 on the season vs. righties and regressed heavily in the second half of the season when it came to power as hitters figured him out.

The Tokyo Dome is a plus ballpark for home runs, and these odds do not reflect the overall great matchup.