Shohei Ohtani isn’t just a great bet to hit a home run on Opening Day — he’s the best bet, according to PRO Projections.
Welcome to arguably the most fun player prop market PRO has to offer for MLB predictions: home run picks!
Last year we hit our stride finding big-time value bets from our data-fueled models. Who’s ready to run it back?
The premise is simple: Comparing our home run projections and prices to the market, then listing players with the biggest advantages to go yard. For Thursday’s best MLB home run picks, we start with none other than Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani.
Check out all 10 model edges below, featuring a PRO Projections board full of players with great odds to hit a home run on Opening Day.
Best MLB Home Run Picks for Opening Day
Our PRO Projections system combine a mix of proprietary player data, betting odds, and various other factors to uncover the best picks.
Our rule of thumb is if you’re only taking a bet based on PRO Projections, the edge should be 3.5% or better. Anything above is solid, and anything slightly below may need a bit more thought or personal bias. We also include players who are good bets to not hit a homer!
Let’s start with Thursday’s best bets to park one on Opening Day.
Home Run Pick for Thursday: Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani is +450 at BetMGM to hit a home run vs. the Tigers on Thursday. PRO Projections estimate 0.27 homers for Ohtani, which translates to a fair price of about +270!
Bettors are getting a +5.5% edge over the consensus price, as our numbers favor the face of baseball to bash one over the Dodger Stadium fence Thursday — just as he did in his most recent game in Tokyo.
Home Run Pick for Thursday: Mookie Betts
We turn to Ohtani’s teammate, Dodgers’ Mookie Betts, who may be flying under the radar after facing health issues recently. Betts is +675 at BetMGM to homer, or an implied probability of roughly 13%. PRO tabs Betts for 0.20 home runs Thursday, which ranks second among biggest plus edges.
Home Run Pick for Thursday: Mike Trout
Mike Trout is another star who projections favor when the Angels take on the dismal White Sox. At +360, Trout is a bargain stacked up to our fair home run odds of about +222.
PRO Projections Best Home Run Picks for 3/27
| Player | Best Odds | PRO HR | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | +450 | 0.27 | +5.5% |
| Mookie Betts (Dodgers) | +675 | 0.20 | +5.2% |
| Mike Trout (Angels) | +360 | 0.31 | +4.9% |
| Jackson Chourio (Brewers) | +675 | 0.21 | +4.7% |
| Cedric Mullins (Orioles) | +700 | 0.19 | +4.4% |
| Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox) | +600 | 0.18 | +4% |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays) | +500 | 0.15 | +3.9% |
| Bryan Reynolds (Pirates) | +900 | 0.23 | +3.9% |
| Ryan Mountcastle (Orioles) | +750 | 0.17 | +3.9% |
| Oneil Cruz (Pirates) | +750 | 0.17 | +3.9% |