MLB heats up on Friday with every team in action, presenting plenty of opportunities to find sharp betting edges. Using our exclusive PRO Projections, we zero in on the top home run bets for tonight’s slate.
We’ve narrowed it down to three top picks spanning two matchups: the Oakland Athletics versus the Toronto Blue Jays and the Tampa Bay Rays facing the Houston Astros.
The players we’re highlighting are available at prices of +475, +600, and +830, showcasing the value our models consistently uncover by weighing odds against player matchups and ballpark factors.
Let’s dive right into the picks and the reasons our PRO data identifies these hitters as prime candidates to go deep tonight. Plus, we’ll add bet slips with each pick you can instantly click and tail.
MLB Home Run Odds: Projections Best Bets for 5/30
Starting with the Athletics-Blue Jays game, Lawrence Butler of the A’s stands out as the top home run bet at +475 odds, currently the best price available at BetMGM.
Oakland’s lineup has been demonstrating solid power recently, but our projections reveal Butler as the most undervalued slugger on the roster. According to PRO, Butler has a 0.25 projected home runs figure tonight, translating into an estimated 4.7% edge over betting markets.
PRO Pick: Lawrence Butler HR (+475)
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/IMG_2473.jpeg” buttontext=”Instantly Tail Lawrence Butler to Homer!” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1602025724&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Turning to the Rays-Astros matchup, our models are low on Houston’s Framber Valdez, who has impressively limited opponents to zero homers over his last three starts—a trend that favors the hitters tonight. Brandon Lowe of the Rays emerges as a compelling pick with +600 odds at BetMGM. PRO projects him for 0.23 homers, the best home run edge of the night at +6.3%.
PRO Pick: Brandon Lowe HR (+600)
[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/IMG_2472.jpeg” buttontext=”Instantly Tail Brandon Lowe to Homer!” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1602042723&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Finally, Danny Jansen, the Rays’ catcher, offers a smart pivot option for those seeking a higher payout. Priced at +830 at FanDuel, Jansen’s 0.15 PRO home run projection makes him a solid underdog candidate with substantial upside in this matchup.
PRO Pick: Danny Jansen HR (+830)
[quickslipbasic bookname=”FanDuel” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/53766_FanDuel@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/IMG_2471.jpeg” buttontext=”Instantly Tail Danny Jansen to Homer!” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/fanduel/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1601289565&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.