There’s a common theme across PRO Projections’ top home run bets today. All three of the top picks bettors can lock in to hit a homer tonight are in the Dodgers vs. Rockies game.
Tonight’s game is the last on the slate for MLB on Wednesday. Though it’s a long wait across an all-day affair of baseball, it’ll be worth it. Our projections plucked three huge edges for the Colorado-Los Angeles game, with optimistic forecasts for several hitters.
Check out PRO Projections here, where our MLB experts run props from strikeouts to doubles.
Below, we’re diving into the top bets for the Rockies vs. Dodgers game to hit a home run at any point.
MLB Home Run Odds, Picks: PRO Projections Top Bets for 4/16
Our projections recommend a 3.5% edge or better when tailing a pick. All three home run predictions below meet the criteria, meaning our data’s much, much higher on these hitters’ probabilities to homer than the market is, factoring in odds.
Home Run Pick for Wednesday: Mookie Betts
Price point is a big one here.
I’ve been following PRO Projections’ home run picks virtually all season. Betts has consistently popped among solid edges despite trading at prices ranging from +500 to +600 in the home run market.
At +700? This is simply a number we can’t pass up.
Betts is the best bet to make using our numbers tonight. We anticipate about 0.22 homers, giving us a solid 7.2% edge over the market.
The Dodgers star already has four this season despite dealing with a stomach bug out of the gate.
Home Run Pick for Wednesday: Will Smith
Smith, the Dodgers catcher, notched his second dinger of the season last night in a 6-2 win over Colorado. Projections remain optimistic.
Smith is +700 at bet365, which is a great pickup by our standards. Smith’s projection is 0.19 homers, and a 4.8% edge is good for the second-best pick of the entire day.
Home Run Pick for Wednesday: Hunter Goodman
On the other side, Hunter Goodman’s the pick to click for the Rockies.
We give Goodman the highest probability for a home run tonight (0.20). The young catcher has cranked out three home runs this season, hinging on fantastic barrel rate and bat speed numbers, per StatCast.
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