Tuesday’s MLB slate delivers new series matchups, fresh player projections and a slew of hitters primed to launch baseballs out of the park.
Our MLB home run bets are particularly ripe with opportunity, with our proprietary PRO Projections identifying five home-run hitters who present significant betting value.
Our projections have honed in on four games that promise the highest home run potential: Rockies vs. Braves, White Sox vs. Orioles, Phillies vs. Blue Jays, and Cardinals vs. Brewers.
Each matchup not only features prolific sluggers but is also influenced by favorable park factors and pitcher matchups that could boost home-run probabilities.
Let’s delve into the most promising picks from today’s matchups.
MLB Home Run Bets, Projections and Top Picks for Tuesday
Rockies vs. Braves Home Run Bet No. 1: Pick Michael Harris II
The first game flagged by our PRO Projections is Rockies vs. Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta, which ranks as the ninth-best ballpark for home runs. Michael Harris II of the Braves is our top projection for tonight.
According to our data, Harris is pegged to hit 0.24 home runs against the Rockies, translating to an 8.6% betting edge when matched against the best available odds of +800 on FanDuel.
PRO Props Edge: Michael Harris II HR (+800)
White Sox vs. Orioles Home Run Bet: Pick Luis Robert
White Sox centerfielder Luis Robert will face Orioles rookie left-hander Cade Povich, who has given up nine homers in his 11 starts this season.
Our projections foresee Robert hitting 0.24 home runs tonight, which gives him an 8.4% advantage against his best odds of +725 available on BetMGM. His power-hitting prowess makes him a strong candidate for a home run in this matchup.
PRO Props Edge: Luis Robert HR (+725)
Phillies vs. Blue Jays Home Run Bet: Pick Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the hottest hitters in the second half of the season, making him a prime candidate for a home run in today’s game against the Phillies.
We project Guerrero to hit 0.32 home runs, which aligns with his best odds of +525 on FanDuel, providing a 7.7% edge. His recent form suggests that he has a high probability of going deep tonight.
PRO Props Edge: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. HR (+525)
Rockies vs. Braves Home Run Bet No. 2: Pick Brendan Rodgers
Returning back to Truist Park, Brendan Rodgers of the Rockies also stands out in our projections.
We estimate Rodgers has a 0.19 home run probability against the Braves, giving him a 7.3% edge compared to the best odds of +900 on bet365. Given the favorable ballpark conditions, Rodgers could also be a stealth value pick for bettors.
PRO Props Edge: Brendan Rodgers HR (+900)
Cardinals vs. Brewers Home Run Bet: Pick Nolan Arenado
Rounding out our home run picks is Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado. Our projection models estimate a 0.21 home run likelihood for Arenado in tonight’s contest against the Brewers, equating to a 7.0% advantage based on the best odds of +800 found on FanDuel.
PRO Props Edge: Nolan Arenado HR (+800)
Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.
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