A prop market that has grown in popularity and offered at FanDuel is the daily strikeout leader. The sportsbook lists odds for every starting pitcher on a given day and you can bet on who will finish with the most strikeouts on the slate.
Keep in mind, much like sports such as golf with leaderboards, dead-heat rules do apply. So if a pitcher you bet on ties with another pitcher, your odds are cut in half.
For today’s slate, Pirates rookie Jared Jones has the lowest odds at +500 as he and the Pirates face the Chicago Cubs.
Behind him are Tyler Glasnow of the Los Angeles Dodgers at +800 against the San Diego Padres and Joe Ryan of the Minnesota Twins at +850 against the Toronto Blue Jays.
While my model agrees that Jones is the favorite to record the most strikeouts today, the +500 isn’t offering any value as I have his true odds closer to +1000.
Likewise, other elite strikeout pitchers like Glasnow and Ryan have tougher matchups today.
So that said, I’m showing value on a couple of mid-range guys today:
Michael King of the Padres at +2200 against the Dodgers. I have his fair odds closer to +1200.
Bryan Woo of the Mariners at +3500 against the Athletics. I have his fair odds closer to +1500.
Woo is making his first start of the season, so his pitch count may only be around 75-80 pitches. However, he should be able to rack up a ton of strikeouts against this Oakland offense.
I have him with around a 14% chance to get 9+ strikeouts tonight, and with today’s slate that could be enough to take down this market.
Below, you can find my projections for the daily strikeout leader today, Friday, May 10th.
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