A prop market that has grown in popularity and offered at FanDuel is the daily strikeout leader. The sportsbook lists odds for every starting pitcher on a given day and you can bet on who will finish with the most strikeouts on the slate.
Keep in mind, much like sports such as golf with leaderboards, dead-heat rules do apply. So if a pitcher you bet on ties with another pitcher, your odds are cut in half.
For today’s slate, Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto has the lowest odds at +500 as he and faces the cellar-dwelling Miami Marlins.
Behind him are Bailey Ober of the Minnesota Twins at +550 against the Seattle Mariners and Reynaldo Lopez of the Atlanta Braves at +600 against the Boston Red Sox.
However, my model shows significant value on one arm in particular today: Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Berrios is a sneaky pick at +1900 as there is no clear favorite on Tuesday – a handful of starters have their strikeout prop set at 5.5 or 6.5.
While the Phillies’ offense is potent, they tend to strike out at an above-average rate, making Berrios’ ceiling higher than normal.
I give Berrios around a 13% chance of fanning at least nine batters, which could be enough to win this market on Tuesday. I have his fair odds closer to +1400, so he’s worth a sprinkle at +1900.
Below, you can find my projections for the daily strikeout leader today, Tuesday, May 7th.
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