MLB Best Bets, Props, Picks, Predictions for Sunday, May 11

Fifteen games are on tap for Mother’s Day on Sunday, May 11, and our baseball betting experts are all over the slate with four MLB best bets.

Among their MLB picks for Sunday are props for Chris Sale and Sean Burke, plus two moneyline predictions for Dodgers vs Diamondbacks and Brewers vs Rays.

Find our MLB best bets and parlay for Sunday below.

[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-11-at-7.36.26%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”+644 MLB Best Bets Mother’s Day Parlay” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1555150811&deeplinkId[1]=ML1553299347&deeplinkId[2]=ML1553429801&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]

MLB Best Bets, Props, Picks Predictions — 5/11

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Atlanta Braves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png”][/teammatchup]	1:35 p.m.	Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” secondfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png”][/teammatchup]	1:40 p.m.	Brewers Moneyline (+125)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Miami Marlins” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” secondfullname=”Chicago White Sox” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png”][/teammatchup]	2:10 p.m.	Sean Burke Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)
[teammatchup link=”#4″ firstfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” secondfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png”][/teammatchup]	4:10 p.m.	Diamondbacks Moneyline (-110)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Braves vs Pirates Best Bet: Chris Sale Strikeouts”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” awayname=”Atlanta Braves” awayslug=”atlanta-braves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” homename=”Pittsburgh Pirates” homeslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” date=”Sunday, May 11″ time=”1:35 p.m. ET” network=”MLB Network” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

Braves ace Chris Sale seems to be all the way back.

His fastball averaged 95.8 mph last time out, which was his second-best mark of the season. He dominated Cincinnati with 10 strikeouts over 6 2/3 scoreless innings. Sale has double-digit Ks in back-to-back starts.

Pittsburgh has struck out at the sixth-highest rate against lefties. The Pirates rank bottom eight in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ vs. LHP.

Pick: Chris Sale Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+110)

[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Atlanta Braves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/atl.png” secondfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Milwaukee Brewers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” secondfullname=”Tampa Bay Rays” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Miami Marlins” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” secondfullname=”Chicago White Sox” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#4″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” secondfullname=”Arizona Diamondbacks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Brewers vs Rays Best Bet: Milwaukee Moneyline”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Brewers Moneyline (+125)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/mil.png” awayname=”Milwaukee Brewers” awayslug=”milwaukee-brewers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-tampa-bay-rays.png” homename=”Tampa Bay Rays” homeslug=”tampa-bay-rays” date=”Sunday, May 11″ time=”1:40 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]

By Nick Galaida

The Rays have used Pete Fairbanks, Edwin Uceta and Manuel Rodriguez each in three of the last four days, including last night.

Even if they are available today, this is a tough spot for that unit to put the finishing touches on a win.

The Brewers should have opportunities as an underdog.

Pick: Brewers Moneyline (+125)

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[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Marlins vs White Sox Best Bet: Fade Sean Burke”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Sean Burke Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-miami-marlins.png” awayname=”Miami Marlins” awayslug=”miami-marlins” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/cws.png” homename=”Chicago White Sox” homeslug=”chicago-white-sox” date=”Sunday, May 11″ time=”2:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

This is a big number for Sean Burke.

The Marlins are a solid matchup for him, but they’re not the slam dunk they were earlier in the season. This line seems to be leaning more on the season-long numbers for Miami, which might be a mistake.

Burke has a 15.7% K%, which would be the 10th-lowest mark among qualified pitchers if he had enough innings. He’s two-thirds of an inning short of qualifying, so it seems fair to include him in the cohort. He’ll almost certainly be a qualified pitcher after today.

Burke’s slider was his best swing-and-miss pitch last season, but its whiff rate has fallen by over 15% this year. He’s coming off back-to-back quality starts, though luck seems to have played a factor.

Despite a 42% hard-hit rate, Burke allowed a silly .156 BABIP. His ERA estimators suggest regression. Burke has an xFIP, xERA and SIERA all over 5.00. His 7.08 xERA ranks in the third percentile.

Miami is third in K% vs. RHP on the season, but it has improved lately. The Marlins are 11th over the past 30 days.

They’ve improved to 18th in OPS and wOBA against righties in that span. Agustin Ramirez has been a huge addition, and Kyle Stowers seems to be breaking out.

The return of Connor Norby is a strikeout downgrade, but he’s been hitting lower in the order. It’s really the Stowers/Norby/Matt Mervis stretch that we have to sweat in terms of high-strikeout rate vs. RHP. The rest of the lineup has been making contact.

Pick: Sean Burke Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135)

[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/736824_ActionPRO_promo_1500x844.jpg” cta=”Premium picks, tools & analysis” firstupsell=”Track & follow smart money” secondupsell=”Biggest player prop edges” thirdupsell=”Real-time expert pick alerts” buttontext=”SAVE 66% NOW!” buttonurl=”/pricing”][/procard]

[anchor name=”4″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Best Bet: Ride the Snakes”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Diamondbacks Moneyline (-110)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-los-angeles-dodgers.png” awayname=”Los Angeles Dodgers” awayslug=”los-angeles-dodgers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/ari.png” homename=”Arizona Diamondbacks” homeslug=”arizona-diamondbacks” date=”Sunday, May 11″ time=”4:10 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”bet365″ bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/859377_Bet365@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”bet365″][/gameheader]

By Bet Labs

In the early part of the season, teams often develop mini streaks — especially those on extended road or home stands.

When a team with this kind of momentum faces an opponent coming off a solid loss (but not a blowout), the rhythm-driven team can be undervalued — when the line modestly shifts in their favor, this indicates sharp support.

Rhythm and routine drive consistency. Teams in streaks are more “in rhythm” than those shifting locations or rebounding from losses, especially when early-season variance hasn’t fully settled into the betting market.

[betlabsembed systemid=”1474959″ systemname=”Evan Abrams – Early Season Rhythm System” leaguename=”mlb” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20opponent’s%20previous%20game%20margin%20is%20between%20-12%20and%20-1%22%2C%22the%20team%E2%80%99s%20home%2Faway%20streak%20is%20between%204%20and%209%20games%22%2C%22the%20closing%20moneyline%20is%20between%20-146%20and%20-100%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20a%20Conference%20game%22%2C%22the%20moneyline%20change%20from%20open%20to%20close%20is%20between%20-35%20and%20-5%22%2C%22the%20team’s%20game%20number%20is%20between%201%20and%2051%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$7,095″ record=”347-210-0″ winpct=”62%”][/betlabsembed]

Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline (-110)

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