MLB Best Bets, Picks, Props, Predictions for Saturday, May 3

It’s another busy Saturday in Major League Baseball, and our betting experts have you covered with their MLB best bets for May 3.

Among our MLB best bets for Saturday are props, picks and predictions for Mets vs Cardinals, Padres vs Pirates and Royals vs Orioles.

Find those picks and a best bets parlay below.

[quickslipbasic bookname=”BetMGM” booklogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” image=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/Screenshot-2025-05-03-at-8.22.08%E2%80%AFAM.png” buttontext=”Saturday MLB Best Bets Parlay” buttonlink=”https://sharpside.com/books/betmgm/passthrough?deeplinkId[0]=ML1531404713&deeplinkId[1]=ML1532904456&context=qs-articles”][/quickslipbasic]

MLB Best Bets, Picks, Props & Predictions — 5/3

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png”][/teammatchup]	2:15 p.m.	Mets Moneyline (-144)
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”San Diego Padres” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” secondfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png”][/teammatchup]	4:05 p.m.	Randy Vasquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup]	7:15 p.m.	Kris Bubic Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mets vs Cardinals Moneyline Prediction”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Mets Moneyline (-144)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” awayname=”New York Mets” awayslug=”new-york-mets” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png” homename=”St. Louis Cardinals” homeslug=”st.-louis-cardinals” date=”Saturday, May 3″ time=”2:15 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]

By Brit Devine

The Mets look underpriced; they have both the starting pitching and bullpen advantage today.

Tylor Megill has been one of the better pitchers in the league so far. Lefties have been befuddled by him all season, posting a minuscule .125 average with only a 10% hard-contact rate.

This kind of stuff is almost unheard of from a right-handed pitcher. That should quiet a good portion of the Cardinals‘ lineup as they can roll out 4-5 lefties rather easily.

Opposite Megill is the Cardinals’ Erick Fedde, who is regressing badly from his decent 2024 season.

Fedde isn’t fooling anyone, posting one of the lowest strikeout rates and whiff rates of any starting pitcher so far. Getting through this Mets lineup without strikeout ability is going to be a tough ask. Not only is there no strikeout ability, he is also giving up way too many free passes via walks.

The Mets have the better offense as well, and with a huge bullpen advantage, I am really struggling to see how this line is below -150. I would play this to -165.

Pick: Mets Moneyline (-144 to -165)

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[teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”New York Mets” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-new-york-mets.png” secondfullname=”St. Louis Cardinals” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-st-louis-cardinals.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”San Diego Padres” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” secondfullname=”Pittsburgh Pirates” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png”][/teammatchup]

[teammatchup link=”#3″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Kansas City Royals” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” secondfullname=”Baltimore Orioles” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png”][/teammatchup]

[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Padres vs Pirates Prop Pick”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Randy Vasquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/sd.png” awayname=”San Diego Padres” awayslug=”san-diego-padres” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/pit.png” homename=”Pittsburgh Pirates” homeslug=”pittsburgh-pirates” date=”Saturday, May 3″ time=”4:05 p.m. ET” network=”MLB.TV” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

We cashed easily on this bet last time, with Randy Vasquez managing just one strikeout against the Rays. The price has only moved slightly (from -135 to -145), so I’ll gladly hop back in.

Vasquez’s strikeout rate is so low that a one-strikeout performance barely affected it. He went from an 8.9% K% heading into the outing to an 8.2% K% after it.

Among 143 pitchers with at least 20 innnigs this season, Vasquez ranks 143rd in K%, 143rd in swinging-strike rate and 141st in CSW%. He’s the most hittable starter in the league.

The Pirates have been solid in terms of plate discipline this season. They rank 15th in K% and 8th in BB% against righties. The Pirates are eighth in K/BB vs. RHP.

Walks have been a problem for Vasquez — he has a 15.6% BB% through six starts. His 10:19 K:BB ratio doesn’t even look real. Pittsburgh’s projected lineup has combined for a sub-20% K% and a BB% above 10% against righties this season.

Lefties give Vasquez the most problems. They’re slashing .293/.388/.414 with just two strikeouts in 67 plate appearances.

Pittsburgh will likely only have four lefties in the lineup, but three of them (Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, Enmanuel Valdez) should be in the first four lineup slots.

Vasquez failed to exceed five innings in an outing in April so his workload ceiling is limited. If he gets to face the lineup a third time, he’ll have to deal with the lefties again.

Pick: Randy Vasquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145)

[relatedarticle articleimageurl=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2025/05/BUBIC53.jpg” linktext=”Royals vs Orioles Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, May 3″ link=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/mlb/kansas-city-royals-vs-baltimore-orioles-prediction-pick-odds-saturday-may-3-qs”][/relatedarticle]

[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Royals vs Orioles Strikeouts Prop”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Kris Bubic Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)” league=”mlb” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/08/2023-mlb-logo-kansas-city-royals.png” awayname=”Kansas City Royals” awayslug=”kansas-city-royals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/mlb/100/bal.png” homename=”Baltimore Orioles” homeslug=”baltimore-orioles” date=”Saturday, May 3″ time=”7:15 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]

By Charlie Wright

It was an outing against this Baltimore squad that started our Bubic journey. He cruised to eight strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings and easily cashed over 5.5 strikeouts at plus money.

Bubic struggled last time out against Houston, which seems to be depressing this line — but I’m not worried about one rough start.

Bubic is at just over a strikeout per inning right now (which we would take here), but his underlying plate discipline stats suggest an elite strikeout pitcher.

He’s posted a 14% swinging-strike rate and a 30.3% CSW% through six starts. Those marks are down a bit from his incredible numbers as a reliever in 2024, which is understandable. Bubic still ranks ninth in SwStr% and 12th in CSW% among qualified starters.

Baltimore has been one of the worst offenses in the league against lefties this season. It’s only 348 plate appearances, but the Orioles are last in OPS, wOBA and wRC+.

They have the third-highest K% at 27%. Baltimore did much more damage against lefties last season, though it did have an above-average 23.5% K%.

Tonight’s lineup will likely have at least seven righties in it. Normally we want our pitchers to face same-handed hitters, but Bubic actually has reverse platoon splits, particularly with strikeouts.

He’s punching out 26.4% of righties compared to 20.5% of lefties. This is similar to what we’ve seen with Cole Ragans. It’s a changeup-forward approach that fits better against opposite-handed opponents.

Pick: Kris Bubic Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

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